Group says Florida poised for job growth

Not used to lagging behind other states in jobs, Florida soon may be among the nation's leaders in job creation, a new study by a prominent economics firm suggests.

But interpreting the data is tricky and economists differ in their opinions.

To Karl Kuykendall, a regional economist with IHS Global Insight, Florida's recovery will be relatively strong compared with other states. But Bob Allsbrook, chief economist at Regions Bank, is less optimistic. Sure, Florida will rank high in job creation, he says, but that's largely because it fell so far and has room to grow.

IHS Global Insight, a Boston-based economics firm, said it expects Florida to start adding jobs slowly, but ramp up over the next several years. Employment should rise by just a slight 1.3 percent this year, which means an additional 86,000 jobs statewide, Kuykendall said.

By 2013 and 2014, the state should add jobs at a 2.65-percent clip, or about 200,000 new jobs per year, before slowing down slightly through 2016.

All told, Florida should add jobs at an annual rate of 2.2 percent between now and 2016.That should place the state sixth in the country in job growth, behind other Sunbelt states including Texas and Nevada. Other states should add jobs at an average 1.65-percent rate, IHS Global Insight predicts.

Construction is one of the industries that should rebound, the economics firm predicts. Since the recession, half of all construction jobs in Florida have vanished. The firm predicts that employment in construction will rise from 348,000 people today to a half-million by 2016.

Erik Suojanen, who runs a plumbing firm in Pasco County, is cautiously optimistic. Suojanen employed 200 people during the boom years, but now employs only 30. He's hoping the government will get behind environmental programs, such as incentives to retrofit people's homes.

"I guess I could say cautiously optimistic," he said. "I don't see us setting the world on fire."

Other industries that should add jobs: business and professional services; health services; and wholesale trade and transportation.

Naysayers have suggested Florida has lost its momentum for the long term, but IHS Global Insight believes otherwise. The state is affordable again because real estate prices have fallen so much, Kuykendall said.

Plus, the state stands to gain from trade with booming Latin American countries such as Brazil and Peru and through the expansion of the Panama Canal. Finally, the firm expects Florida's warm climate to once again begin drawing people from the North and abroad.

Still, not everyone sees so many positives.

While Florida may be near the top of the nation in its rate of job growth, that won't necessarily be fast compared to past years. During the mid-2000s, the job growth rate in Florida exceeded 4 percent a year - nearly double the rate IHS Global Insight is predicting.

And even as more people get jobs in Florida, the unemployment rate will stay relatively high. The unemployment rate was 11.9 percent last year in Florida and should fall to 6.9 percent by 2016, which historically is fairly high, IHS Global Insight's data show.

Allsbrook, the Regions Bank economist, notes that Florida may, indeed, create jobs quicker than other states. But, it has lost so many jobs since the recession started that any increase in jobs is magnified.

The real question is when Florida will create as many jobs as it lost, and that's not easy to answer. He notes that Floridians - like other Americans - are much more prone to saving money and paying down debt these days. That's good for them financially, but it will hold back the economy.

Also, the state's housing sector is still struggling, he said.

For his part, Kuykendall said it's true that Florida won't grow as quickly as it did, say, in the 1990s. But, the country and conditions are different now, and he insisted Florida has a bright outlook overall.

"Yes, Florida will not be breaking any previous growth records," Kuykendall said. "But its recovery will still be strong especially relative to other states."