Health Care Spending May Double By 2017

WASHINGTON - By 2017, consumers and taxpayers will spend more than $4 trillion on health care, accounting for $1 of every $5 spent, the federal government projects.

The 6.7 percent annual increase in spending - nearly three times the rate of inflation - will be largely driven by higher prices and an increased demand for care, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said.

But other factors in the mix include a growing and aging population. The first wave of baby boomers become eligible for Medicare in 2011.

With the aging population, the federal government will be picking up the tab for a growing share of the nation's medical expenses. Overall, federal and state governments accounted for about 46 percent of health expenditures in 2006. That percentage will increase to 49 percent during the next decade.

"Health is projected to consume an expanding share of the economy, which means that policymakers, insurers and the public will face increasingly difficult decisions about the way health care is delivered and paid for," economists with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said.

Overall health care spending in 2017 was estimated to increase to $4.3 trillion.

In 2006, people and the government spent $2.1 trillion on health care, an average of $7,026 a person. In 2017, health spending will cost an estimated $13,101 a person.

In his budget for next year, President Bush recommended slowing the yearly growth of Medicare from about 7 percent to about 5 percent. The slowdown would occur primarily by freezing reimbursement rates for the next three years to scores of health care providers, such as hospitals, nursing homes and home health centers.

Bush also proposed requiring wealthier Medicare beneficiaries to pay higher monthly premiums when participating in Medicare's prescription drug plan.

Those recommendations would reduce spending by nearly $178 billion during five years, but have little chance of passage in Congress.