Housing prices aren't likely to fall much further, but mortgage interest rates are about to start rising, according to well-known Florida economist Hank Fishkind.
Interest rates, which are still in the 4 percent range, could be 8 percent or higher by early 2012, Fishkind said Wednesday during a meeting of the Bay Area Real Estate Council.
The area is out of the recession, although the recovery will be slow.
"The hurricane is over, but the damage to our economy is dreadful," Fishkind said. "The only good news is that we're at the bottom."
Tourism is still a big part of Florida's economy, and the state can't improve until the rest of the nation does, he said.
"The states east of the Mississippi River are weak, so we'll be weak," he said. "When the economy is weak and people lose jobs, they're less likely to travel and spend money."
Florida, he said, has lost its competitive edge. Companies are reluctant to come here because of high impact fees, property taxes and unreasonable land policies.
One of his clients, for example, is trying to do a $400 million project in Sarasota but is thinking about switching to another state because of zoning hurdles.
"We have put ourselves at a competitive disadvantage," he said.
Lower housing prices have made Pasco County more attractive to buyers. That hasn't been good for Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, which have lost population to Pasco. More people move to Pasco from other Florida counties, he said, than from other parts of the United States.
Some of the worst-hit areas of the state gace a long road ahead.
Cape Coral, Fishkind said, may still have empty homes in 10 years.
"Some places don't recover," he said.
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