Vacancy rates misleading

Amid recently released 2010 census data came an alarming headline: Nearly 20 percent of homes in the state are sitting vacant.

The exact number for the state is actually closer to 18 percent, and here in Pasco the rate is 17.2 percent, or 39,316 housing units.

This news, of course, is disconcerting for any homeowner. Such a large backlog of empty homes certainly can't be good for those looking to sell or for already battered home values.

But, after a closer look, the vacancy rate data may not be as grim as it seems, say some who work in real estate.

"This is an incomplete and misleading statistic," said Stan Geberer, an associate at Fishkind & Associates, an economic and consulting firm founded in 1987 that has offices in Orlando, Naples and Port St. Lucie.

For the U.S. Census Bureau's purposes, a "housing unit" is a single-family house, townhouse, mobile home or trailer, apartment, group of rooms or a single room that is occupied as a separate living quarters.

The problem with the big, banner headline declaring the state's vacancy rate is that the number includes homes that aren't actually vacant, Geberer said.

"It makes great headlines, but it is really misleading and incomplete," he said.

"It's important to understand what they mean and what the data contain before we make an analysis that suggests we're headed for more dire times or some other form of ruin."

For some historical perspective, however, consider the following data that is already available.

The 2000 census showed a total of 173,717 housing units in Pasco, of which 26,151 - or 15 percent - were vacant. Of the vacant units, however, 14,915 were for seasonal, recreational or occasional use. Subtracting the seasonal, recreational or occasional use properties puts the vacancy rate at 6.5 percent.

By 2005, the American Community Survey showed 15 percent of housing units in Pasco were vacant, but after subtracting seasonal, recreational and occasional units, the total was closer to 7 percent. One caveat, the Census Bureau's ACS is an annual, ongoing survey of a sample of the population, while the census looks at the entire population.

In 2009, the ACS showed the vacancy rate at 23 percent, but at 14 percent after eliminating seasonal, recreational and occasional homes.

For comparison's sake, in 2005 the state's vacancy rate after eliminating the seasonal, recreational or occasional homes was 7 percent; in 2009 it was 12 percent.

While it will be a little while before we know from the census how many Pasco properties are used for winter getaways and how many are truly vacant, it is true there are plenty of homes languishing on the market. Just ask any local Realtor.

"There are definitely more of them out there. I see them more in areas where the market really boomed, like Wesley Chapel, southern Land O' Lakes and parts of Lutz," said Jane Mooney, president of the East Pasco Association of Realtors and a Realtor with Century 21 Bill Nye Realty.

Those homes in foreclosure or going through a short sale - when the bank agrees to sell a property for less than what is owed on the mortgage - bring down the prices of all homes, Mooney said.

Working through that inventory won't be a quick job, Slater said, but interestingly enough, he said he's seeing some glimmers of optimism in Pasco - just not for the single-family home market. He's working on four feasibility studies for apartment projects in the county; in the past eight years, he had worked on only three.

"The environment for new apartments is very positive," he said.

"There are major institutional builders all looking at Pasco."

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