Consumers remain cool to 3D TVs

David Thaxton faced a wall of HDTVs at BestBuy last week, trying to pick a new television for the house he's building. Maybe an LG, he thought, or a Samsung. Definitely a screen at least 65 inches across.

One thing he doesn't really care about is 3D.

"I don't really see it as a necessity," Thaxton said. "Maybe it would be nice for the kids because they play video games. But I don't really like 3D, even in the theater."

Just wait, TV makers implore.

If you would only give 3D a chance, you'd see amazing sights, akin to the lifelike leapings of the blue people in "Avatar." Imagine running down the hallways of Osama bin Laden's hideout during the SEAL raid in a CNN re-enactment. Or tuning into CBS and following that Tiger Woods drive all the way down the 18th fairway.

"The 3D and Smart TV revolution is just beginning," Havis Kwon, president and CEO of LG Electronics announced at this month's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.

Still, for all the promise and buzz, analysts sound more like consumer Thaxton with their ho-hum view of 3D. Most new TVs will have 3D, but it isn't proving to be the game changer that high-definition was – something so eye-popping it drove millions of Americans to upgrade their sets.

For one thing, there's the cost of the glasses. And the puzzling over which 3D format to choose. And the shortage of shows presented in 3D.

With the biggest event in television just 10 days away, for example, local cable companies say there are still no plans to present the Super Bowl in 3D here.

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"3D at home has been kind of a mixed bag in terms of experience," said Michael Inouye, a senior analyst with ABI, a New York-based market research firm, who bought a 3D TV for his home and watched "Avatar" in 3D but not much else.

"One of my own colleagues bought a TV with 3D, and he ended up bringing the glasses in to work to sell them off. Personally, I prefer 2D in most cases."

ABI recently surveyed consumers and found that their top priority in buying a TV is still price, Inouye said, followed by screen size, image refresh rate, and similar techie factors. 3D was important to 36 percent of people in March, but the number actually slid to 29 percent in the past few months.

Competing technologies, which dogged the home-movie market for years before Blue Ray became the standard, don't help.

On one hand, there are so-called "active" 3D systems made by companies like Sony, where the HDTV screen rapidly shifts images in synch with battery-powered glasses –presenting slightly different images to the left and right eyes and creating the illusion of three dimensions.

Active systems also cause headaches in some viewers.

While prices for glasses have come down, they can still cost $50 apiece unless they're included with the TV purchase.

On the other hand, there are so-called "passive" systems championed by TV makers like LG, using polarized glasses that don't need batteries – similar to the glasses in movie theaters.

And whatever the technology, viewers often need a 3D-capable DVD player or set-top box, adding another expense.

Some high-end consumers are just holding out for the next generation, such as 3D TVs that don't require glasses and new "OLED" TVs with a picture that's more detailed and vibrant.

Everyone has to wait, too, for the volume and variety of 3D programming to make an upgrade worth your while. Streaming movie companies like Netflix have yet to offer titles in 3D.

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All this uncertainty presents a potential headache for cable and satellite TV providers.

They have to decide whether to devote a separate channel for 3D programs. Should there be one Discovery Channel in standard definition, another for high-def shows and a third for 3D shows?

Bright House officials say relatively few viewers see 3D as important but the cable company has included some 3D programs at no cost in some upper tier channels, anyway.

Two weeks ago, Bright House carried the Sony Open golf tournament on two channels – in 3D on channel 1770 and the high-def stream on the Golf Channel, 1154.

"Currently, there is limited 3D programming that is available," said Bright House spokesman Joe Durkin. "But as demand or interest grows, programming will likely increase as well."

DishNetwork hasn't devoted any channels full time to 3D, but it has placed titles like "Shark Night" and "Glee: The 3D Concert" in its on-demand library and started selling special set-top boxes that are 3D capable. Box prices range from free to a couple hundred dollars, depending on contract terms.

It's a big commitment: Sending a 3D signal through a satellite takes much more bandwidth than a typical HD channel in standard 2D.

"We're continuing to evaluate the market demand for 3D," DishNetwork officials said in a statement, "and will take that into consideration of launching any future 3D channels."

Verizon officials say they see a fair amount of 3D viewing of on-demand titles in 3D, and would "seriously consider" showing the Summer Olympics in 3D if NBC makes the footage available.

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While 3D is slow to take hold, other new HDTV features are proving popular. These include TVs equipped with Wi-Fi links, Netflix for streaming movies, and Pandora for streaming music.

"Smart TVs" with these features now sell at a premium of several hundred dollars.

Only 6 percent to 7 percent of U.S. households with broadband internet have a 3D TV, according to the Parks Associates research firm.

"3D has not yet become a reason compelling enough to convince most people to buy a new TV," said Pietro Macchiarella of Parks Associates.

Undaunted, TV manufacturers – always looking for a new upgrade to push, especially one as simple to add as 3D – are making the feature standard on new sets.

Comparing prices on TVs with and without 3D is difficult since only higher-end devices with many new features tend to include the technology. In general, any new TV tends to cost a few hundred dollars more than the previous generation did.

"I stand by my forecast that by 2014, 80 percent of HDTVs on the market will be 3D-ready," Macchiarella said, partly because he expects a standard format soon.

They'll know they've reached the tipping point, Macchiarella said, when viewers start throwing "BYOG" TV parties: "Bring your own glasses."