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Chavez Loses Supporters With Constitution Changes

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By JUAN FORERO, The Washington Post

Published: December 1, 2007

CUMANA, Venezuela - Few associates had been as loyal to President Hugo Chavez as the governor in this coastal state, Ramon Martinez. And few are now more determined to defeat Chavez as he campaigns for constitutional changes that, if approved by voters on Sunday, could extend his presidency for life.

Chavez, 53 and in his ninth tumultuous year in office, was until recently predicted to win a referendum that would permit him to run for office indefinitely, appoint governors to federal districts he would create, and control the purse strings of one of the world's major oil-producing countries.

But Martinez and a handful of others who once were prominent pillars in the Chavez machine, have defected, saying approval of 69 constitutional changes would effectively turn Venezuela into a dictatorship run at the whim of one man. They have been derided by Chavez as traitors, but their unimpeachable leftist credentials have given momentum to a movement that pollsters say may deliver Chavez his first electoral defeat.

"The proposal would signify a coup d'etat," said Martinez, 58. "Here the power is going to be concentrated in one person. That's very grave."
Pollsters in Caracas say Venezuelans increasingly agree - even those who continue to support the president but say the proposed overhaul of an eight-year-old constitution goes too far.

Datanalisis, a respected Caracas polling firm that early last month was predicting a Chavez victory, found in a poll last week that 48 percent would vote "no" to the reforms, compared with 39 percent in support, said poll director Luis Vicente Leon.

"In those three weeks, what's happened is the people have been sensitized," Leon said. "What happened is he presented a reform the people don't like."
Datanalisis accurately predicted Chavez victories in past elections, including last year's presidential election, in which he won a second six-year term. Leon said the president's vigorous campaigning in these last few days is closing the gap. "It all depends on the capacity to mobilize," he said, "and we know who has that capacity."

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