TBO.com - TBO is Tampa Bay Online

Forecasters Need To Rethink Predictions

ADVERTISEMENT

The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 4, 2007

For the second year in a row, Florida was spared a hurricane, despite dire predictions by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists that had many people fearing a repeat of 2004 and 2005, when the state was battered repeatedly.

The essentially calm season for Florida was a relief, of course. Nevertheless, the National Hurricane Center has cause for alarm.

If it doesn't revise the format of its seasonal forecast, the public may become indifferent to its prognostications.

NOAA, it should be stressed, did not bungle the forecast for the six-month Atlantic season, which ended Friday. A total of 16 tropical cyclones formed - including 14 that packed enough winds to be named. NOAA's original prediction called for 13 to 17 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major ones.

The season's named storms included six hurricanes, two of which were major, marking the first time in recorded history that two Category 5 storms made landfall in the Atlantic Basin. Those deadly storms hit way south of Florida, which received minor scrapes from two tropical depressions.

All told, one hurricane, one tropical storm and three tropical depressions hit the United States. So Americans might easily - and mistakenly - get the impression that the NOAA's storm predictions were off base.

As a result, residents may not take next season's prediction as seriously as they should - and that could have tragic results.

Perhaps it would be best for the center to drop the numbers from its seasonal forecasts and simply say whether the upcoming season will be active or not and explain why.

In addition, there is disagreement in the meteorological community over how National Hurricane Center forecasters name storms. Some private meteorologists question whether some systems should have been named this year because central pressures were too high and qualifying wind speeds weren't maintained very long, according to the Houston Chronicle.
NOAA and the National Hurricane Center should review their storm-prediction process, with the goal of ensuring their warnings continue to command the public's attention and confidence. Nothing should be taken to chance, especially the preparedness of Floridians and others in hurricane vulnerable states.

Share this:

Loading Comments...

Email Print

ADVERTISEMENT