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December Tropical Storm Rare

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 10, 2007

Updated: 12/10/2007 01:10 pm

TAMPA - If the disturbance swirling near the Caribbean Sea grows into Tropical Storm Olga, it would be the 10th December storm since 1851.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a mass of thunderstorms about 200 miles east of Puerto Rico that shows some chance of developing into the 2007 hurricane season's 15th storm.

But the potential storm is about to head west into an area only marginally favorable for development.

"It's not well-organized, and it's not going to get much better," said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the hurricane center.

Also, the probable track for the storm would take it close to Puerto Rico and the mountains of Hispaniola, and that could disrupt development, he said.

What scientists consider modern hurricane records date to 1851 and show only nine storms that formed after the official end of hurricane season, which is Nov. 30.

The most recent were Tropical Storm Zeta in 2005 and tropical storms Odette and Peter in 2003. The earliest were a hurricane and tropical storm in 1887.

It is possible others formed in the early 1900s or in the 1800s that did not make landfall or were not observed by ships and therefore are not part of the record.

"You can't rule that out. In those days all they had were reports from ships," Feltgen said.

Even if Olga does form, it is expected to continue a westerly path across the Caribbean, pinned under high pressure in the Atlantic, and not approach Florida.

On the projected path only South Florida and the Keys may see some rain from the tropical system.

"It's not going to help our drought areas," said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist.

A weak tropical storm or depression would be a large help for the 52 percent of Florida suffering from some level of drought.

"We would welcome a disorganized blob like this," Nelson said.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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