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GOP Hopefuls Heat Up N.H.

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By LIZ SIDOTI, The Associated Press

Published: December 10, 2007

MANCHESTER, N.H. - New Hampshire has become the hot spot for action in the Republican presidential race, as Iowa is for Democrats.
GOP candidates Mitt Romney, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are battling for supremacy in New Hampshire. Mike Huckabee is moving up in polls. And long-shot Ron Paul is holding a core of support in the final month before the nation's leadoff primary.

That could lead to a fractured outcome.

"I think all five of those candidates will end up in double digits on the Republican side," said Fergus Cullen, state GOP chairman, underscoring the high level of activity here and scrambled nature of the contest.
Public surveys show Romney, former Massachusetts governor, with a sizable lead while McCain, the Arizona senator, and Giuliani, former New York mayor, are in a tight race behind him. But private polls show McCain has solidified his second-place standing as Giuliani has slipped. Huckabee, former Arkansas governor, is gaining support, fueled by his ascent in Iowa. Paul, the Texas congressman with a libertarian bent, trails.

Until recently, GOP strategists said Romney seemed to be in the strongest position to win the nomination.

Romney spent more than a year laying the groundwork for back-to-back wins in Iowa and New Hampshire. He led in Iowa for months but now battles the come-from-behind Huckabee in a two-way contest growing fiercer by the day. Polls show a dead-heat. Romney's campaign is weighing whether to run negative ads against Huckabee.

Fred Thompson, former Tennessee senator, is trying to compete in Iowa and is not a factor in New Hampshire.

Iowa Has An Effect

Should Romney win Iowa's caucuses on Jan. 3, he would come into New Hampshire in a commanding position. Huckabee's candidacy could be over. If Romney loses in Iowa, GOP strategists say he would be wounded but still able to compete in New Hampshire on Jan. 8 because of the foundation he has laid.

If Huckabee wins in Iowa, they say, it's unclear whether he can leverage that success into financial and organizational strength in the narrow window between Iowa and New Hampshire. He has grass-roots support in New Hampshire but not much of an organization.

McCain and Giuliani, who aren't campaigning full-bore in Iowa, will be waiting in New Hampshire.

Having defeated George W. Bush in the state in 2000, McCain has held a base of hard-core backers and built on the organization left from his first race. He has pinned his second bid on the state. Now, he has the coveted endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Leader.

Giuliani increased activity in New Hampshire a month ago with more visits and heavy TV advertising. Despite his efforts, his support recently slipped. He also lacks the mature organizational structure of Romney and McCain.

Democrats Could Be A Factor

Adding to the uncertainty of the GOP contest here is the outcome of the Democratic race in Iowa, which could influence New Hampshire's independents; they can vote in either party's primary. In 2000, they voted Republican to help McCain beat Bush. They might be more attracted to the Democratic race this time with its celebrity field.

In Iowa, Democratic front-runner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York is in a high-stakes three-way contest with Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois and former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina.

Should Clinton win the caucuses, analysts say, independents will be less likely to vote in the Democratic primary because they will think she's unstoppable with a double-digit New Hampshire lead. That could help McCain or Giuliani, who attract moderates and independents.

But if Obama beats Clinton in Iowa, swing voters could swarm to that race. Romney, whose campaign is geared toward the conservative GOP base, could benefit. It all means a wildly unpredictable New Hampshire race.

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