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December Storms Stretch Unofficial Hurricane Season

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 12, 2007

TAMPA - The last day of November traditionally marks the end of hurricane season, but over the past five years, four storms have ignored the calendar and formed in December.

The latest, Tropical Storm Olga, formed Monday night near the Virgin Islands and grazed Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, raising a question of whether the six-month season should stretch longer.

In 2005, one tropical storm formed after the official end of the season. And in 2003, two storms formed after Nov. 30.

Since 1851, 10 storms have formed in December, including Olga.

Changing the official end of the season would not be without precedent. Although the start has remained fixed on June 1 for decades, in the late 1970s or early 1980s, the hurricane center changed the season's end from Oct. 31 to Nov. 30.

Not all hurricane seasons are the same. The Atlantic season lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, but the Eastern Pacific season runs from May 15 to Nov. 30.

The Northwest Pacific, where storms are called typhoons, has no declared season because storms can occur year-round.

The Atlantic's current season covers the six months that include the most storms.

"It's based on the statistical probability that you'll see storms during those months,"

said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Statistically, 97 percent of tropical cyclone activity takes place during the Atlantic basin's season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration that oversees the hurricane center is not discussing an extension of the hurricane season.

"There is absolutely no thought to do that at all," Feltgen said.

Improvements in satellites and analysis could contribute to the spate of December storms the past five years.

"Whether it's the result of better detection methods, we can't rule that out," Feltgen said.

There is nothing concrete about the start of the season, either. Subtropical Storm Andrea, this season's first storm, formed in May.

Joe Pelissier, a hurricane forecaster from 1966 to 1982, said that changing the end date for the season only meant he and the other forecasters could stop their work schedule that kept the center manned 24 hours a day.

"It was really just an operational thing for us," he said. "It meant an end to shift work."

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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