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December Storms Push Season Boundaries

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By NEIL JOHNSON, The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 13, 2007

Updated: 12/12/2007 11:46 pm

TAMPA - The last day of November traditionally marks the end of hurricane season, but over the past five years, four storms have ignored the calendar and formed in December.

The latest, Tropical Storm Olga, formed Monday night near the Virgin Islands and grazed Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, raising a question of whether the six-month season should stretch longer.

The start has remained fixed on June 1 for decades, but there is precedent for changing the season's end: It used to be Oct. 31 before it was pushed forward a month in the late 1970s or early 1980s.

"It's based on the statistical probability that you'll see storms during those months," said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

Ninety-seven percent of tropical storm activity takes place during the Atlantic basin's six-month season.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the hurricane center, is not discussing an extension of the hurricane season.

"There is absolutely no thought to do that at all," Feltgen said.

Improvements in satellites and analysis could contribute to the spate of reported December storms the past five years.

"Whether it's the result of better detection methods, we can't rule that out," Feltgen said.

There is nothing concrete about the June start of the season, either. Subtropical Storm Andrea, this season's first storm, formed in May.

And not all hurricane seasons are the same. The Atlantic season lasts from June 1 to Nov. 30, but the Eastern Pacific season runs from May 15 to Nov. 30.

The Northwest Pacific, where storms are called typhoons, has no declared season because storms can occur year-round.

Joe Pelissier, a hurricane forecaster from 1966 to 1982, said changing the end date for the season only meant he and other forecasters could wind up a work schedule that kept the center staffed 24 hours a day.

"It was really just an operational thing for us," he said. "It meant an end to shift work."

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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