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The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 15, 2007

Poll Shows Giuliani Loses Florida Lead

A new Rasmussen Research poll on the Republican primary in Florida has a surprising outcome - it shows Rudy Giuliani losing the lead to Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

The poll shows Huckabee leading with 27 percent, followed by Romney at 23 percent, and Giuliani at 19 percent. The poll has an error margin of 4.5 points.

Rasmussen calls the results a "stunning" change from its November poll, which showed Giuliani leading with 27 percent and Romney next with 19 percent.

As recently as last week, a Quinnipiac poll showed Giuliani maintaining a 30 percent to 17 percent lead over Romney.

Polls in primary elections can be changeable and unreliable, but if this one is accurate, it could spell disaster for Giuliani.

Rasmussen uses automated calling for its polls, which some pollsters say is not the best technique. Respondents hear recorded questions and punch their answers into the telephone keypad.

Pollster Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which uses traditional methods, said he would take the results "with a grain of salt."

"There has been some shifting in the race ...but I don't necessarily know that Huckabee's ahead in Florida."

In GOP, Romney Only Heavy TV Spender

Romney was the only heavy spender on television advertising in the Republican presidential primary through mid-November, and the only candidate to run television advertising in Florida, according to Nielsen Co. figures.

Through Nov. 18, Nielsen reports, Romney had run 2,053 TV spots in Florida and 16,876 on broadcast TV nationwide and 297 on national cable.

By comparison, the next biggest TV spender in the GOP race, Fred Thompson, had run 1,068 spots, the vast majority in Iowa.

Huckabee, who began advertising in late November, isn't included in the figures.
Barack Obama is the TV leader among the Democrats, with 10,217 spots, followed by Hillary Rodham Clinton with 7,823 and Bill Richardson with 7,144.

The Democrats, boycotting Florida until the Jan. 29 primary, haven't run ads here.

Opponents Take Aim At Surging Huckabee

Huckabee's opponents in the GOP presidential primary race aren't ignoring his recent surge in the standings.

In a conference call on Monday, Mitt Romney's leading Florida backers thrashed Huckabee as "more liberal than Bill Clinton" on taxes and spending, while Thompson portrays him as a Johnny-come-lately to the ranks of Castro opponents.

"Some things seem to be changing. A month or two ago we would have thought Fred Thompson was going to be the competition for conservative voters," said Rep. Tom Feeney, one of three prominent Floridians put on a conference call by the Romney campaign to talk with reporters.

South Florida Evangelist Backs Thompson

Gary Cass of Fort Lauderdale, a nationally known anti-abortion activist and evangelist, has endorsed Thompson in the Republican presidential primary - a coup for Thompson but a further sign of the division of social and religious conservatives among the GOP presidential candidates.

Cass is former executive director of the late Dr. D. James Kennedy's Center for Reclaiming America and heads the Christian Anti-Defamation Commission.

Virtually all the leading Republican candidates for president, including Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney and Thompson, have received endorsements from one or more important social/religious leaders or groups. Some of these "movement conservatives" fear that could undercut their influence.

Keyword: March On Politics, for political reporter William March's blog.

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