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Britain's Handover Of Basra Not Expected To Damage Security

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By BRADLEY BROOKS, The Associated Press

Published: December 16, 2007

BAGHDAD - Britain's weekend handover of Basra province will have a limited effect on security in Iraq's biggest oil region because rival Shiite warlords and local officials have been wielding the real power in the area.

The British have never sought to maintain the same level of control as the Americans did over the provinces the United States oversaw after the 2003 invasion. Since elections in 2005, southern Iraq has been under the domain of religious Shiite parties and their militia allies.

All of which means the British are handing over something local power players already possess.

"I don't think there is a handover. You've never had real British control of Basra or the area," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "What you are really watching is a sort of nominal transfer of authority to the central government and Iraqi forces."

Peace Vital In Oil-Rich Region

Stability in Basra and southern Iraq is key not only to security, but also to whether the all-important oil industry will grow and attract vital international investment. The region contains most of Iraq's proven oil reserves. If bloody fighting between Shiite factions returns, it will be hard to persuade companies to invest.
Security problems could also open the door to even greater influence by neighboring Iran and threaten land routes used by the United States to bring ammunition, food and other supplies from Kuwait to American forces to the north.

Wednesday's triple car bombing, which killed at least 25 people in Amarah, shows how fragile security in the south is.

"I don't know that there is going to be a security vacuum more than there has been," said Frederick Kagan of the American Enterprise Institute. "The British haven't been patrolling very aggressively anyway. The situation is never going to go back to the status before, because all kinds of things have changed."

Even though Britain had long seen its influence over events in southern Iraq diminishing, the mere presence of substantial British forces offered assurances the situation in the strategic area would not spiral out of control.

British officials have said they will retain the ability to help Iraqi troops quickly if widespread violence erupts, but they also are reducing the number of troops in the country from 4,500 to 2,000 by spring. In the months soon after Saddam Hussein was toppled, there were about 40,000 British troops in Iraq.

Weaponry Called 'Insufficient'

The main players in Basra and southern Iraq are the powerful Shiite entities - the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army militia; Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the largest Shiite political party and the Badr Brigade militia, which has largely been absorbed into the Iraqi security forces; and the Fadhila party, which also has its own fighters and a member as Basra's governor.

Basra's police chief, Maj. Gen. Jalil Khalaf, who survived two assassination attempts in a single week last month, doubts his own forces have the means to cope.

"Frankly speaking, we have rifles, machine guns and a few armored vehicles, which aren't as advanced as the British weaponry and are insufficient to maintain full control of the province," Khalaf said this month.

With few troops in the south, the Americans have little choice but to hope the Iraqis can handle any surge in violence or that political deals among the Shiite power-brokers can prevent a blowup.

VIOLENCE IN IRAQ

Among the violence in Baghdad on Saturday:

•Two civilians were killed and two police officers were injured in an explosion in Al Alif Dar.

•Gunmen opened fire, killing a traffic police officer in his car.

•Two members of the Adhamiyah Sahwa (Awakening Council) were killed and 10 others were injured in an explosion.

•A civilian was killed and three others were wounded when a suicide car bomb targeted a checkpoint for the Iraqi army.

Source: McClatchy Newspapers

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