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'07 Trends Signal What's Hot And Not For '08 Job Market

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By SARAH E. NEEDLEMAN The Wall Street Journal

Published: December 17, 2007

If you're wondering what jobs will be hot in 2008, take a second look at the past year's news. Major events and trends often set the stage for dramatic changes in recruiting, and this year is no exception.

Headlines about soaring oil prices and the iPhone's introduction signal that more jobs will be created in such areas as alternative energy, online networking and mobile technology, recruiters say.

Not surprisingly, though, some big stories are likely to be followed by substantial job cuts. Case in point: The lingering mortgage crisis has already resulted in mass layoffs for workers at many lending institutions, banks and real estate companies. The jobs outlook for these concerns is expected to be even gloomier in 2008, recruiters say.

Away from the headlines, recruiters say demand should continue strong in health care and retirement planning as the baby-boomer population continues to age. And the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 will continue to drive hiring at accounting firms.

Here's a look at some of the biggest news stories of 2007 and their expected jobs-related impact in 2008.

Escalating Gasoline Prices
The news: The price of oil neared records in 2007, and energy analysts see no relief in the near future as output remains steady, demand continues to increase, and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken.

What's hot: In response to rising gasoline prices, companies offering alternative-energy solutions are sprouting up, creating a need for workers with backgrounds in fields ranging from marketing to computer science, says Charley Polachi, a partner at search firm Polachi & Co.

Last year, search assignments for these types of companies accounted for 15 percent of the firm's business, and Polachi says he expects that figure to climb to 25 percent in 2008.

Polachi & Co. of Framingham, Mass., specializes in placing senior professionals in life-science, technology and energy companies. Those companies are mainly seeking management, operations, technology, and research and development professionals from parallel industries because alternative energy is so new that few candidates are expected to have direct experience, Polachi says. Executive-level operations positions can pay $175,000 in annual base salary, he adds.

Alternative-energy companies also need workers for positions in human resources, sales, accounting and other critical business functions, Polachi says.

However, there are signs that one segment of the industry - ethanol - is consolidating, which could limit job opportunities in this niche.

What's not: Businesses that rely heavily on oil, such as chemical producers and airlines, are showing signs of a hiring slowdown.

For example, Dow Chemical Co. recently announced plans to cut 1,000 jobs and shuttered a number of underperforming plants. Gas and oil are the main feedstock for chemical companies such as Dow.

Mobile Technology, Online Networking

The news: Early this year, Apple Inc. introduced the iPhone, a device that combines Web, video and mobile technology, and competitors followed suit by putting out similar products.

In October, Microsoft Corp. announced plans to buy a 1.6 percent stake in Facebook Inc., solidifying online social networking as more than a passing trend.

What's hot: Web developers skilled at creating applications for mobile advertising, social-networking and other user-generated content are at the top of recruiter Dan Goldsmith's most-wanted list.

A managing director at AC Lion, a New York executive search firm, Goldsmith says there is a dearth of Web developers of this kind because the genre is so new.

"Demand is at every level," he says, adding that salaries range from $45,000 for recent college graduates to about $110,000 for senior developers.

AC Lion specializes in recruiting for jobs in interactive marketing, advertising, sales and technology. Ad agencies and large companies are also on the lookout for marketers who can "conceive and execute campaigns within the social-networking environment," Goldsmith says.

The most prevalent jobs, mainly senior-level positions requiring traditional and new media experience, pay salaries ranging from $120,000 to $140,000, he adds.

Another hot area: Online ad sales professionals are needed, particularly at firms that broker deals for small Web companies that lack internal sales teams, Goldsmith says. Similarly, mobile ad sales pros are in demand now that more carriers are integrating Web technology into cell phone services.

What's not: Professionals skilled in search-engine optimization - or the art of making Web sites search-engine-friendly, Goldsmith says.

They may have been hot commodities last year when such workers were hard to find; now there are more than enough to fill the demand.

Also, experts in selling and developing tools for doing business online are less in demand. It's a natural progression, Goldsmith explains. Demand has quieted as search engines and e-commerce have matured.

The Mortgage Crisis

The news: A growing number of homeowners are finding it difficult to pay their mortgages after loose lending standards led to a high rate of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages.

As these loans adjust upward, homeowners find themselves stuck with payments that are hundreds or thousands of dollars higher each month. The result: a significant increase in foreclosures and massive loan write-downs on the part of banks.

What's hot: To avoid repeating history, lending institutions, hedge funds and investment banks are likely to invest more in departments aimed at offsetting such problems, says Michael Woodrow. He's president and founder of Risk Talent Associates LLC, a New York recruiter that places senior professionals in credit, market and operational risk-related positions as well as quantitative and compliance finance jobs.

Annual compensation packages range from $75,000 for junior risk analysts to more than $1 million for chief risk officers, he says.

What's not: Jobs that are directly related to the home-loan industry are becoming increasingly scarce, recruiters say. Positions throughout the corporate ladder at mortgage, real estate and home construction companies are being eliminated.

The panic is also showing signs of spreading to industries that service these areas, including law firms and financial services companies with practices in real estate and mortgage securities. Interior-design firms and home furnishings companies are also being hit hard.

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