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Clinton Benefits From Campaign Boycott

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 18, 2007

TAMPA - In April, when 2,000 people jammed the Cuban Club courtyard in Ybor City to see Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois, it was the most exciting event yet in this presidential campaign season, and convinced Obama supporters he could challenge frontrunner Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York in Florida.

But today, even though Obama is beating or challenging Clinton in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, her lead in Florida has drastically increased, not decreased, since then.

What happened?

The answer, according to local Obama supporter Frank Sanchez and others, is the boycott - the pledge by the leading Democratic candidates not to campaign in Florida before the state's Jan. 29 primary.

"Other than fundraising, there's been zero organized work here," Sanchez said. "If he'd had a chance to get out and work with the voters, I think the result would have been different."

Clinton had a strong base in Florida before the boycott went into effect - in part a legacy of her husband's intensive political work in the state. No one will ever know whether John Edwards or Obama could have overtaken her in Florida if not for the boycott.

But several political experts said the boycott has cut Florida off from the debate in the campaign, leaving Clinton unchallenged and strengthening her hold.

"It has clearly limited the ability for the lesser-known candidates or those with less experience in Florida to get in here and get to know the people you need to get to know and build relationships," said veteran Democratic strategist Karl Koch of Tampa. "She was very popular to start with, anyway."

Early States Demanded Boycott
The boycott stems from the Legislature's decision last spring to set Florida's presidential primary on Jan. 29. That violated guidelines of both national parties, which set Feb. 5 as the earliest primary date for most states.

But the Democratic Party also gave certain states approval to hold primaries in January: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Angry that Florida was impinging on the early primary period, the Democratic parties in those states demanded the candidates boycott Florida.

Since then, Democrats have held only fundraising events, and have done no public campaigning, advertising or high-profile appearances here.

The result is simple, said University of South Florida political scientist Judithanne Scourfield McLauchlan, a former Democratic campaign operative: "She had the highest name recognition before the race began, and because they're not coming here, people still know her the best."

In April, a Quinnipiac poll showed Clinton leading among Florida Democrats, 36 percent to Obama's 13 percent and 11 percent for Edwards.

Last week's Quinnipiac poll showed Clinton with 53 percent, Obama with 17 percent and Edwards with 7 percent.

One dissenter from the theory that the boycott has frozen the race in Clinton's favor is Mitchell Berger, a Fort Lauderdale lawyer and prominent Democratic fundraiser, and an Edwards backer.

The effect of the boycott, he said, has been "zero."

"The candidates wouldn't be here anyway, except to raise money," he said. "Right now, the race is all about Iowa and New Hampshire."

Berger said the Florida polls "just reflect the national polls - they're the same everywhere except in the first four states, which is where the candidates are working."

Clinton Has Bigger National Lead

Clinton does have a bigger lead nationally than in any of the early states, where she is being challenged. But her lead in Florida is even bigger than nationally.

Both Edwards and Obama backers say wins in the early states, particularly Iowa and New Hampshire, could give their candidates momentum to challenge Clinton in Florida.

"Everything is going to turn on Iowa," said Fred Levin, a Pensacola lawyer who backs Edwards. "If he doesn't do well there, I think he's got real, real problems. If he comes out well there, if he were to win, then I think he will become the frontrunner."

Koch said there's still a possibility Clinton could be upset in Florida, despite the poll showing her with a majority of the vote in a seven-way race.

"You can't tell how much of that 53 percent in the recent Quinnipiac poll is soft, or people who are supporting her because there is no other, competing message out there," he said.

Frustrated with the boycott, some Floridians are organizing their own presidential campaign organizations, without input from the national campaigns. But Clinton has been the biggest beneficiary there, too.

In November, a Tampa group led by prominent lawyer Bill McBride, former Mayor Sandy Freedman, Clerk of Court Pat Frank and others, launched a Tampa for Hillary group not affiliated with the national campaign.

Last week, they announced that group had grown into what they called an "unauthorized" statewide Florida for Hillary group.

"What the whole situation speaks to, in my opinion, is the stupidity of the boycott and the DNC's decision, which is hurting only the Democratic candidates themselves," Koch said.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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