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No Way To Pick A President

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: December 23, 2007

It's about to happen again. Three states - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - that combined don't have as many electoral votes as Florida will have disproportionate influence in determining the next leader of the free world.

Though the order of states' presidential caucuses and primaries changes somewhat every four years, those three states have kicked off the process in recent elections. Due to the earlier and ever-increasing news media coverage of campaigns, a candidate must finish well in these states to show that his or her message resonates with voters. Beside the outsized influence of these states, they don't represent a cross section of America, particularly Iowa and New Hampshire.

Don't get me wrong; Iowa is a great place. I went to school and lived there for many years. But it doesn't reflect the nation demographically, and Iowans will be the first ones to tell you so off the record. They crave the media attention and economic boost the caucuses give the state, however.

Regardless, after the Jan. 3 caucuses, someone will drop out of the presidential race because their message failed to resonate with the American people.

Convention Gives Birth To Caucuses

Ironically, the Iowa caucuses began in 1972 from an effort by the national Democratic Party following their violent and divisive 1968 convention in Chicago. While the Democrats' gathering that year is remembered for the clubbing Chicago police officers gave protesters, I've always believed the biggest outrage took place inside the convention when Hubert Humphrey received his party's nomination for president even though he had never entered a primary.

After that, party officials decided changes were needed. In Iowa, a decision was made to open up the process to more people, and the 1972 state convention was moved to May 20. Because of a new rule requiring 30 days between district delegate-selection events, the state caucuses had to be held no later than Jan. 24 - before the first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary. The Republicans thought all the media attention was great, so in 1976 they decided to schedule their caucus for the same day as Democrats, and the rest is history.

But while the reforms were made to open things up, the caucus process is not very democratic. Only about 10 percent of Iowa's 180,000 registered voters participate, meaning about 6.5 percent of the state's 2.8 million people will help make or break a presidential campaign.

It makes me wonder how much we have progressed since 1968.

Regional Primaries The Way To Go

I've made this suggestion before in this space, but here it goes again.

Some people have suggested a national primary - that is, all states' primaries on the same day. A better idea endorsed three years ago by the National Association of Secretaries of State, is rotating regional primaries.

The nation would be divided into four regions, each holding its primaries or caucuses in a different month, say March, April, May or June. The regions would rotate positions among the four months every four years to give each one an opportunity to receive the early spotlight. More important, a frontrunner couldn't secure a party nomination by winning Iowa, New Hampshire and a few other early primaries.

The way the process is set up now, the old smoke-filled rooms don't seem as bad.

Joseph H. Brown is a Tribune editorial writer.

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