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Vanderbilt Enters Swamp Optimistic

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By ANDY STAPLES, The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 3, 2007

GAINESVILLE - Forget galloping horsemen or swarming locusts. Want a real sign of the apocalypse?

It's Nov. 3, and Vanderbilt University's football team will take Florida Field today trying to keep its Southeastern Conference East Division title hopes alive. That's right, when the Commodores face Florida today at 12:30 p.m., each team will play for its right to remain in the East race.

The Gators (5-3, 3-3 SEC) usually find themselves in the hunt for a division title this time of year. Meanwhile, the Commodores (5-3, 2-3) have sailed into uncharted territory.

"Hopefully," Vandy coach Bobby Johnson said, "we're smart enough to know we're just playing one game this week."

Intelligence never has been an issue at the SEC's choosiest academic institution. Athleticism has. But, Florida coach Urban Meyer pointed out this week, Johnson and his staff have upgraded Vandy's talent considerably. The Commodores lead the SEC in sacks (24) and kickoff return average (25.1 yards a return), and they can match the speed of most of their opponents. It's not such a stretch, Meyer said, to see Vandy improve the way Kentucky has in recent years.

Two years ago, the Commodores - led by future Denver Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler and then-freshman receiver Earl Bennett - scared the Gators in a 49-42 double-overtime Florida win. That scare might have turned into a loss had Vandy had the athletes it does today.

"They're right in the middle of the pack or even in the upper half of the SEC as far as personnel," Meyer said. "Certainly at some positions, they have all-SEC players. I don't believe that was the case a couple of years ago."

And even though Las Vegas oddsmakers think the Gators will win by more than two touchdowns, no one in orange and blue seems so certain. Florida's defense has given up 79 points in its past two games. And while both teams have quarterbacks (Tim Tebow for Florida and Chris Nickson for Vandy) playing with shoulder pain, only the Gators will play a freshman defensive tackle (Mike Pouncey) who was an offensive lineman until Monday. Vandy's defense remains almost unchanged from the group that held Steve Spurrier's South Carolina team to six points on Oct. 20.

On top of that, Vandy players know a win would make their program eligible for its first bowl appearance since 1982. Johnson said his team understands the boosts that would come with playing in a bowl.

"It's a good sign in a program that's moving forward," Johnson said. "That would help everything."

So the Commodores' goal is twofold today. Beating the Gators would make Vandy bowl eligible and keep it in the hunt for the SEC East title. Bring on the locusts.

Vanderbilt (5-3, 2-3 SEC) at No. 18 Florida (5-3, 3-3)

KICKOFF: 12:30 p.m.; Florida Field, Gainesville

TV/RADIO: WTTA, Channel 38/WDAE, 620 AM

THE LINE: Florida by 15 1/2

KEEP AN EYE ON
Vanderbilt - Junior WR Earl Bennett broke the SEC receptions record last week, raising his career total to 215. In two previous games against the Gators, Bennett has 19 catches for 232 yards and three touchdowns. Given Florida's problems with pass coverage, Bennett could be a tough matchup.
Florida - Florida's defense could look different this week because of adjustments caused by injuries. Freshman Mike Pouncey has moved from offensive line to defensive line, and Gators coach Urban Meyer has suggested Florida might use a lot of three-man fronts.

KEY STAT
Vanderbilt - The Commodores haven't played in a bowl game since 1982, but with a win, they would become bowl eligible. Six wins probably wouldn't guarantee a bowl game in a year in which 11 SEC teams could be bowl eligible.
Florida - Florida's opponents have converted 11 of 12 fourth-down attempts in the Gators' past four games.

INJURY UPDATE
Vanderbilt - QB Mackenzi Adams (chest), DB Myron Lewis (shoulder), DB Darlron Spead (shoulder) and LB Brandon Bryant (ankle) are questionable. QB Chris Nickson (shoulder) is probable.
Florida - DT Javier Estopinan (knee), DT Terron Sanders (ankle) and DT Brandon Antwine (back) are out. FS Major Wright (thumb), WR Riley Cooper (finger) and QB Tim Tebow (shoulder) are probable.

AT STAKE
Vanderbilt - The Commodores are still alive in the race for the SEC East title, which is unusual this late in the season.
Florida - The Gators must win their next two games to have any hope of staying alive in the race for the SEC East title. They also are in danger of playing their way out of a New Year's Day bowl.

KEY MATCHUPS
When Vanderbilt has the ball - Even though opponents have keyed on Bennett, he still leads the SEC in catches with 54. If Nickson's shoulder is healthy, expect him to take off running when pressured. Florida's pass coverage will have to improve. If a broken thumb keeps Wright out of the lineup for a second consecutive week, SS Tony Joiner probably will have to help guide sophomore Dorian Munroe at free safety.
!When Florida has the ball - Tebow's bruised right shoulder may or may not have improved since last week, but his condition will determine how coaches call plays. If Tebow remains sore, expect more carries for Percy Harvin and Brandon James. A week after allowing six sacks, Florida faces the team that leads the SEC in sacks with 24. Those sacks can come from anywhere, too. No Commodore has more than three this season.

PREDICTION
Vandy is tied for sixth in the league in rushing offense, but look for the Commodores to run plenty against a defense that made Georgia freshman Knowshon Moreno look like the second coming of Herschel Walker. If that works, Bennett will get open. The Gators got a wake-up call last week against Georgia, but after all their injuries, do they have the talent to bounce back? If they use Harvin properly, they shouldn't have trouble scoring. But can Florida's defense keep Vandy from scoring at the same pace?

Score: Florida 31, Vanderbilt 28

Reporter Andy Staples can be reached at (352) 262-3719 or astaples@tampatrib.com.

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