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Fires In The Forecast

NASA Image

This image shows how far the plumes of smoke extended into the Pacific Ocean and how quickly they developed during the height of the event.

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By KURT LOFT | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 4, 2007

Updated: 11/04/2007 08:20 pm

TAMPA - Our climate is flickering, and the recent wildfires that ravaged southern California are another indication of the changes that lie ahead.

So say scientists trying to make sense of the moving pieces in a climatic puzzle, from storm patterns to melting ice caps to debilitating droughts. Some changes are slow and difficult to appreciate, but the fires out West were fast and dramatic, resulting in almost 2,000 homes and businesses burned to the ground.

The sheer magnitude of nature's fury was captured by satellite.

While California will take years to recover from the damage done, the fires were more or less expected, scientists say.

They are consistent with climate change models, and they aren't isolated — more fires are predicted in the coming years and decades, says Ronald Neilson, a bio-climatologist at Oregon State University.

"This is exactly what we've been projecting to happen, both in short-term fire forecasts for this year and the longer term patterns that can be linked to global climate change," he says.

Neilson says a single event such as the California fires can't be directly linked to natural climate change, but it does suggest a pattern. He calls the fires "another piece of evidence that climate change is a reality, one with serious effects."

Scientists believe parts of the United States are grappling with changing precipitation patterns over the long term — fluctuations in climate rather than day-to-day weather. And if an overall global warming trend continues, they say, more water will evaporate from the oceans.

Isn't that a good thing? Not necessarily. More evaporation means more rain in many places but periodic dry spells in others. Throw in a curveball with El Niño and La Niña events, and a period of heavy rains increase vegetation beyond normal densities. When followed by a sustained drought, once-lush regions become powder kegs of fuel.

Fire forecast models developed by Oregon State and the U.S. Forest Service predicted the California fires as well as the regional droughts in Florida and Georgia.

The researchers predict both warmer and wetter periods in the coming century, conditions that could lead to fires larger than any in recent history. If global warming continues unabated, scientists say, rising carbon dioxide levels would encourage plant growth, building "fuel loads" for more fires during droughts. The problem gets more complicated as communities discontinue the controlled burning of vegetation.

Fires like those in southern California have been going on for thousands of years and continue to be part of a natural cycle, says Ed Hopkins, a climatologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The problem is that people are getting in the way of nature's business.

"Human beings change the balance of nature in such a way that they allow for vegetation to grow without a natural burning off," he says. "So it builds up to where all of a sudden there's a fire, and it doesn't make any difference if people are there."

Reporter Kurt Loft can be reached at (813) 259-7570 or kloft@tampatrib.com.

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