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Experts: Musharraf's Tightened Grip Is Weakening His Position

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By DAVID ROHDE, The New York Times

Published: November 6, 2007

ISLAMABAD, Pakistan - While Gen. Pervez Musharraf justified his emergency rule decree as helping him combat terrorism, it could end up weakening his ability to rein in the al-Qaida militants who ultimately threaten American interests.

In fact, Western diplomats here said, each step he takes to strengthen his hold on power in the name of stability generates instability of its own.

Diplomats and Pakistani political analysts said the general's move may sap his anemic public support and has already diverted thousands of policemen and intelligence agents from fighting terrorism to enforce his crackdown.

While they agree that some of Musharraf's arguments have merit, they also argue his attempts to hold onto power run the risk of placing his own political future above the nation's.

"It may be a short-term Band-Aid for his own survival," said a Western diplomat, "but in the end - or even the middle term - it isn't going to contribute greatly to winning the war on terrorism."

Musharraf invited Islamabad's diplomatic corps to his official residence Monday to brief them on the situation and on his reasons for declaring emergency rule. But two Western diplomats said the encounter only reinforced concerns Musharraf was more focused on vanquishing his political rivals than on fighting terrorism.

At the meeting, the general primarily railed against his political opponents, with special venom reserved for the Supreme Court. When asked by a diplomat to describe specific plans to crack down on terrorists, Musharraf gave only a vague answer.

"He effectively dodged the question and turned to the military presence in the room and asked them to organize a briefing for ambassadors," said one of the Western diplomats. "It wasn't very clear in terms of what was actually being done."

"There was serious concern that terrorism and security was not front and center," said the second Western diplomat. "What was really amazing was him going on and on and on about how bad the judiciary was."

During the meeting, Anne W. Patterson, the American ambassador, complained to Musharraf of the "extraordinarily heavy-handed measures" he had used, in particular the arrest of pro-Western human rights activists. "It would be hard to imagine a group less threatening to the security of Pakistan," she said, according to one diplomat.

Other diplomats at the meeting made similar points, but Musharraf, who did not wear his uniform but traditional Pakistani clothing, appeared unconvinced, the diplomats said. He said he was concerned that the ambassadors from developed countries did not "understand Pakistan."

At the same time, Pakistani analysts are increasingly questioning Musharraf's contention that emergency rule was needed to help him fight terrorism. Across the country, policemen and intelligence agents have been diverted from hunting terrorists to arresting lawyers, who apparently are being assessed as the greater threat to the general's rule.

These analysts argue that the extraordinary steps Musharraf has taken against Pakistan's courts and its media will in any case have little effect in Pakistan's tribal areas, where al-Qaida and other groups are thriving. Federal judges have limited jurisdiction in the tribal areas and journalists are barred from traveling alone there.

"He was already free to do whatever he wanted to do in the tribal areas," said Rasul Baksh Rais, a Pakistani political scientist. "This does not place Musharraf in a better position."

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