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How One Play Made A Season

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By ANDY STAPLES | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 6, 2007

GAINESVILLE - We're going to do a little experiment using Chaos Theory this week. You remember Chaos Theory, don't you? It's the idea that if a butterfly in Japan flaps its wings in April, the flap may set off a chain of events that causes a thunderstorm in Boise in June.

For our purposes, we're going to imagine the Chaos that would have reigned over the University of Florida football program, if, at 6:53 p.m. EST on Nov. 11, 2006, Gators DE Jarvis Moss had waited a tenth of a second longer before he jumped. Imagine a football, booted by South Carolina K Ryan Succop, sailing over the outstretched left hand of Moss and through the uprights of the north end zone goal post at Florida Field.

Now, before we imagine more, consider how you feel about Gators coach Urban Meyer and the job he has done since he was hired at Florida in December 2004. Meyer has won a national title, a Southeastern Conference title, brought in two top-ranked recruiting classes and - with a win against South Carolina this week - could have a team in contention for a second consecutive SEC East crown.

Also, consider how you feel about South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier. Spurrier won a Heisman Trophy as a Florida player, then returned to Gainesville and won a national title and six (official) SEC titles. Remember also that Spurrier was a coaching free agent - though he already had taken the first steps toward becoming the Gamecocks' coach - when Florida officials fired Ron Zook on Oct. 25, 2004.

Got it? Good. Back to our little exercise.

Imagine now that the kick has sailed through to give the Gamecocks a 19-17 win, their second in two tries against Florida under Spurrier. Imagine Succop has turned to the Florida sideline and delivered a Gator chomp. Imagine Meyer taking the longest 80-foot walk of his life to meet Spurrier at midfield.

Keep that image in your mind. Now how do you feel about Meyer? Was he still the best man for the job?

A tenth of a second. A butterfly wing flap two months earlier and 15,000 miles away. That's the difference between a coach perceived as a legend-in-the-making and a guy who, even if he had led his team to a win in the SEC title game against Arkansas and trounced Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl, might need to win Saturday to keep his seat from spontaneously combusting.

A rational Florida fan would consider the way Meyer has changed the culture of the program and his recruiting success - which probably wouldn't have suffered as much as you'd think without a national title - and say that of course Meyer was the correct man for the job. That fan would argue that Spurrier needed seven seasons to win a national title, so an SEC title in Year Two represents acceptable progress.

A smaller but more vocal faction of Gator Nation, however, would not have seen past the visor on the opposite sideline when Succop made that kick. Those who believed Spurrier should have been handed Florida's program in 2004 - despite his oft-repeated protest that he didn't want the job - would have again suggested that the Gators bypassed the college game's ultimate mastermind in favor of the flavor of the month.

Or maybe this exercise is flawed. Maybe a hawk flying over the Himalayas last September stirred up an air current that set off a chain reaction that would have sent a gust of westbound wind over the east rim of Florida Field at exactly 6:53 p.m. EST on Nov. 11. Maybe the kick would have played out the way Florida QB Tim Tebow imagined when asked Monday to ponder this scenario.

"Hopefully," Tebow said, "it would have gone wide left."

Reporter Andy Staples can be reached at (352) 262-3719 or astaples@tampatrib.com.

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