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Published: November 9, 2007
WASHINGTON - The political turmoil in Pakistan is threatening to undermine a new long-term counterinsurgency plan by the U.S. military aimed at strengthening Pakistani forces fighting Islamic extremists in the country's tribal areas, according to senior military officials.
The officials said the initiative involves expanding the presence of U.S. Special Forces and other troops to train and advise the Pakistanis, who have been largely ineffective in battling the hard-line militants.
Even as the Bush administration reviews aid to Pakistan in light of Gen. Pervez Musharraf's declaration of emergency rule last weekend, U.S. military officials are moving forward with the plan: ordering equipment, surveying training facilities outside Islamabad, and preparing to send in dozens of additional military trainers, who are expected to begin arriving early next year.
"This train has already left the station," said a senior military official familiar with the effort. "We on the ground are moving ahead under the ambassador's guidance."
Senior military officials, however, have privately voiced concern that the unrest in Pakistan threatens to disrupt the plan's momentum - both because of developments in Washington, where members of Congress seek to restrict aid, and in Islamabad, where the emergency rule has focused Pakistan's military on curbing popular dissent.
The vice chief of the Pakistani army - Gen. Ashfaq Kiyani, considered a possible successor to Musharraf as head of the armed forces when Musharraf relinquishes his military role - is supportive of the effort, the officials said.
The initiative is unprecedented in recognizing the challenge in Pakistan's tribal areas as an entrenched and spreading insurgency, not solely a counterterrorism issue. The Pentagon considers the rugged, virtually impenetrable tribal region along the Afghan border one of the U.S. military's top concerns - not only as a sanctuary for al-Qaida fighters and Taliban insurgents to stage cross-border attacks in Afghanistan and potentially plan strikes elsewhere, but also as harboring a growing threat to the stability of nuclear-armed Pakistan.
The initial program is to last five to seven years. It extends beyond security to span broad-reaching economic development, health-care and literacy efforts by several U.S. and Pakistani agencies under a plan integrated by U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson.
The security elements of the initiative are expected to cost $75 million to $100 million a year, including the cost of trainers, training facilities, light infantry weapons - such as machine guns and mortars, body armor, and helmets - and radios and trucks.
Currently, U.S. Special Forces teams make occasional trips to Pakistan for about six weeks at a time to train different groups of Pakistani soldiers. Under the new plan, the 12-man teams would be stationed there for longer assignments, without gaps in between, and they would work consistently with the same set of local troops. The teams would step up their training of the Pakistani military's Special Services Group, a strike force for conducting raids against insurgent training camps and leaders.
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