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CHASE FOR THE NEXTEL CUP

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 9, 2007

RACE NO. 9: PHOENIX

Checker Auto Parts 500, coverage starts 3 p.m. Sunday, WFTS, Ch. 28

The expansion of the Chase field from 10 to 12 drivers this year increased the chances of somebody winning the championship who didn't deserve it based on season-long performance, but that isn't going to happen in 2007. The championship has all but come down to the two drivers that have been far and away the best of the class all year long: Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Johnson has three more wins than Gordon at nine, but Gordon, who trails by 30 points, has accumulated more points during the whole season. In fact, with his seventh-place finish last week at Texas, Gordon would have clinched his fifth championship under the pre-Chase points system. Here's a look at how Johnson and Gordon match up heading into the season's penultimate race, as well as a glance at how the other Chase drivers have fared at Phoenix.

Compiled by Tony Fabrizio
1. JIMMIE JOHNSON (6,382)

At Phoenix: 8 starts, 0 wins, 3 top-5s, 6 top-10s.

Last 5 finishes: 2, 14, 1, 1, 1.

Preview: Riding the second three-race winning streak of his career, Johnson screams into Phoenix like a bullet train at full song. He wasn't dominant in any of the wins; rather, he put himself in position to take advantage of some smart and lucky late-race calls by crew chief Chad Knaus. Johnson and the No. 48 team have not won at Phoenix, but he finished second and fourth in his last two starts on the oddly shaped one-mile oval. Four of Johnson's nine victories this year have come on Car of Tomorrow races, and this is the final COT race of the year. Johnson will be driving the car in which he won at Martinsville three weeks ago.

2. JEFF GORDON (-30)

At Phoenix: 17 starts, 1 win, 8 top-5s, 14 top-10s.

Last 5 finishes: 1, 1, 3, 7, 7.

Preview: Although he owns only one victory at Phoenix, it came in April this year, when he tied Dale Earnhardt Sr. on the career win list (he passed him the following week at Talladega). Also boding well for Gordon is that he has finished on the lead lap in the last 12 races on the Arizona track, and during that span, a 12th-place finish in 2005 is his only finish outside the top 10. Gordon is having a strong Chase - he has two victories and an average finish of 4.6 (to Johnson's 5.2) - but he probably will have to step it up from the seventh-place finishes of the last two weeks to overtake his friend and teammate.

THE OTHERS

3. CLINT BOWYER (-181)

At Phoenix: 4 starts, 0 wins, 1 top-5, 1 top-10.

Title chances: If he wins out and leads the most laps in both races, he would need Johnson to average a 22nd-place finish or worse.

4. KYLE BUSCH (-339)

At Phoenix: 5 starts, 1 win, 1 top-5, 3 top-10s.

Title chances: Can't win it if Johnson starts both races.

5. CARL EDWARDS (-357)

At Phoenix: 6 starts, 0 wins, 2 top-5s, 4 top-10s.

Title chances: Can't win it if Johnson starts either remaining race.

6. TONY STEWART (-373)

At Phoenix: 11 starts, 1 win, 5 top-5s, 7 top-10s.

Title chances: Can't win it if Johnson starts either remaining race.

7. JEFF BURTON (-431)

At Phoenix: 16 starts, 2 wins, 5 top-5s, 8 top-10s.

Title chances: Mathematically eliminated.

8. KEVIN HARVICK (-439)

At Phoenix: 9 starts, 2 wins, 3 top-5s, 4 top-10s.

Title chances: Eliminated.

9. KURT BUSCH (-453)

At Phoenix: 9 starts, 1 win, 2 top-5s, 5 top-10s.

Title chances: Eliminated.

10. MATT KENSETH (-454)

At Phoenix: 10 starts, 1 win, 4 top-5s, 5 top-10s.

Title chances: Eliminated.

11. DENNY HAMLIN (-524)

At Phoenix: 4 starts, 0 wins, 2 top-5s, 2 top-10s.

Title chances: Eliminated.

12. MARTIN TRUEX JR. (-524)

At Phoenix: 3 starts, 0 wins, 0 top-5s, 0 top-10s.

Title chances: Eliminated.

CHASE FOR THE NEXTEL CUP

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