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GOP Endorsements Likely To Benefit Giuliani Most

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 10, 2007

TAMPA - Rudy Giuliani probably will benefit most from the smorgasbord of conflicting presidential endorsements this week by social and religious conservatives, according to a handful of political insiders in the Florida conservative movement.

The reason they gave: The endorsements show that the social and religious conservatives haven't found a compatible candidate to unify behind. That means there will be no unified, conservative opposition to Giuliani in the Republican primary race.

One Florida conservative leader, John Stemberger, called that "ironic," noting that social and religious conservatives are leery of Giuliani because of his past moderate to liberal stands on issues ranging from abortion to gun control - yet the conflicting endorsements may end up helping him.

The endorsements - one each for Giuliani, John McCain, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney - have made this probably the most important week of the campaign so far for social and religious conservatives, sometimes called "movement conservatives."

•Well-known television evangelist Pat Robertson - maybe the most famous single name in the movement, but whose influence has declined in recent years - endorsed Giuliani.

•Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, a top religious conservative figure in the Senate who just dropped out of the presidential race, endorsed Arizona Sen. McCain.

•Paul Weyrich, one of the ideological founders of the modern social/religious conservative movement, endorsed former Massachusetts Gov. Romney.

•American Family Association founder Donald Wildmon endorsed former Arkansas Gov. Huckabee.

Fred Thompson isn't completely out in the cold. He'll be guest of honor Nov. 16 at the annual fundraising dinner at Stemberger's Florida Family Policy Council, one of the state's leading social/religious conservative groups.

Thompson, who proclaims himself the most consistent conservative in the race, was widely expected last summer to reap a harvest of movement conservative support. That hasn't gelled, for reasons including a campaign style some consider lackadaisical, and stands on social issues that emphasize federalism - letting states decide such issues as gay marriage.

'Lack of Consensus'

Ken Connor - a Washington-area trial lawyer with a long history in Florida, including a 1994 run for governor - said the endorsements show "the lack of consensus among social conservatives about the current field."

"I think you're going to see the same division of the house among the grassroots that you see at the leadership level," he said. "That augurs well for Rudy Giuliani."

Bill Bunkley, a Tampa lobbyist and talk show host on a local Christian radio station, said he's "shocked" at Robertson's endorsement of Giuliani. Because of the movement's influence on the GOP nomination, he said, the divided endorsements raise the question, "Could we possibly in the modern era have a brokered Republican convention? The old days coming back again and a nomination decided by horse-trading at the convention?"

Stemberger, an Orlando lawyer active in conservative causes at the state level, said social and religious conservatives "may not like Giuliani, but their collective actions are ending up helping him."

"The more conservatives are split, the more likely it is that Giuliani will take the nomination," he said.

For some time, Connor said, an organization known as the Arlington Group - an umbrella group of leaders of national conservative groups - has been trying to reach a consensus on a candidate whom movement conservatives could unify behind. "What this tells me is they've been unable to reach one," he said.

Weyrich Endorsement

Stemberger said for insiders and leaders in the conservative movement, Weyrich's endorsement will be the most influential.

Though he's not as well known as Robertson, Weyrich is a key figure in the history of the modern conservative movement. He helped found some of its most important organizations, including the Heritage Foundation and Moral Majority, and has guided the movement's philosophy, Stemberger said.

He called the Weyrich endorsement "the most significant event in Romney's campaign to date," and said it will lend Romney a stamp of authenticity as he seeks support of movement conservatives.

Stemberger said Robertson's endorsement of Giuliani shows he is "a pure Republican pragmatist," and he thinks the "collegiality" among senators was part of the reason for Brownback's endorsement of his fellow senator, McCain.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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