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Pakistan's Instability Worries U.S.

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By JOBY WARRICK, The Washington Post

Published: November 12, 2007

WASHINGTON - When the United States learned in 2001 that Pakistani scientists had shared nuclear secrets with members of al-Qaida, an alarmed Bush administration responded with tens of millions of dollars worth of equipment, such as intrusion detectors and ID systems, to safeguard Pakistan's nuclear weapons.

Pakistan remained suspicious of U.S. aims, and declined to give U.S. experts direct access to the half-dozen or so bunkers where the components of its arsenal of about 50 nuclear weapons are stored.

For the officials in Washington now monitoring Pakistan's deepening political crisis, the experience offered reassurance and grounds for concern.

Protection for Pakistan's nuclear weapons is considered equal to that of most Western nuclear powers. But U.S. officials also worry that their limited knowledge about the locations and conditions in which the weapons are stored give them few good options for a direct intervention to prevent the weapons from falling into unauthorized hands.

Of the world's nine declared and undeclared nuclear arsenals, none provokes as much worry in Washington as Pakistan's, numerous U.S. officials said. The government in Islamabad is arguably the least stable. Some Pakistani territory is partly controlled by insurgents bent on committing hostile acts of terrorism in the West. Also, officials close to the seat of power - such as nuclear engineer A.Q. Khan and his past collaborators in the Pakistani military - have a worrisome track record of transferring sensitive nuclear designs or technology to others.

That record, and the counter-terror prism of U.S. policy-making since the Sept. 11 attacks, have led the Bush administration to worry less that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal might be used in a war with India than that it could become a security threat to the U.S. homeland in the event of any theft or diversion to terrorist groups.

Because the risks are so grave, U.S. intelligence officials long have had contingency plans for intervening to obstruct such a theft in Pakistan, two knowledgeable officials confirmed. The officials would not discuss details of the plans, which are classified, but several former officials said the plans envisioned efforts to remove a nuclear weapon at imminent risk of falling into terrorists' hands.

Former and current intelligence officials said the focus of U.S. concerns is the stability of Pakistan's army, which was already showing strain from Western pressures to upgrade its counterinsurgency work when President Pervez Musharraf declared a state of emergency last week, unleashing riots and a police crackdown on political opposition groups. The officials said the military might not remain a loyal, cohesive force if violence becomes sustained or widespread.

DEVELOPMENTS

•President Gen. Pervez Musharraf said Sunday that Pakistan will stick to its January schedule for parliamentary elections but he set no time limit on emergency rule, raising grave doubts about whether the vote can be free and fair.

•Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto said the schedule for elections was "a first positive step," but with an emergency in place, it would be "difficult" to campaign.

•Attorney General Malik Mohammed Qayyum said military courts could now try civilians on charges ranging from treason to inciting public unrest.

•Musharraf justified the dismissal of independent-minded Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry and many of his Supreme Court colleagues - who have emerged this year as the only real check on his power - as necessary for the government to function smoothly and fight terrorism.

The Associated Press

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