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56% Backing Of Tax Plan Short Of Goal

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By JEROME R. STOCKFISCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 16, 2007

TALLAHASSEE - Floridians favor the constitutional amendment promising property tax relief, but the 56 percent level of support is short of the 60 percent supermajority threshold now required to pass such a measure.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research on Thursday released the results of a Nov. 12-14 survey of registered, likely voters. Fifty-six percent said they would vote "yes" on Constitutional Amendment 1, which will appear on the Jan. 29 primary election ballot. Twenty-two percent said they would vote "no," and 22 percent were undecided.

"I'm encouraged by the initial poll numbers," said Sen. Mike Haridopolos, R-Indialantic, who sponsored the joint resolution that became the amendment. "We have a long way to go before the election."

The amendment would double the homestead exemption from the current $25,000 to $50,000. It would also allow those who move to carry their Save Our Homes valuation benefit with them.

There is also a benefit for small businesses, an exemption of $25,000 for tangible personal property. And it provides a Save Our Homes-type benefit for nonhomestead property, capping valuation increases at 10 percent a year.

A spokeswoman for the Florida League of Cities, which opposes the amendment, said she expects the support to slide downward as voters familiarize themselves with the language.

"Based on what these poll results indicate, it would suggest that the public is understanding that this measure is not tax reform," said the league's Sharon Berrian. "It's going to make the tax system even more unfair, it's going to continue to shift the tax burden, and people are beginning to understand that. Moreover, people are beginning to realize that it's impossible to understand the fiscal impact or the unintended consequences of this proposal."

The average benefit per household was put at about $240, but the bottom line of the Save Our Homes portability is difficult to assess because it would vary greatly depending on how long a home was owned and the value of a new home.

Of the $12.4 billion forecast to be trimmed from local tax collections over five years, education takes a $2.4 billion hit.

According to the poll, the tax package has support across party lines, with Democrats, Republicans and independents all favoring it by more than 50 percent. No single group exceeds 60 percent support, however.

Pollster Brad Coker suggested it is the Democratic voters who could swing the results; the voting bloc is typically more supportive of education and services to seniors and the poor, for example, than it is to slashing government.

"I think that's where the battle is going to be fought - if the special interest groups can convince the Democrats to vote with their conscience, rather than their pocketbooks," Coker said.

Haridopolos points to the significant number of undecided voters. "If we can break even with the remaining numbers, we'll have a two-thirds majority in favor, and a strong mandate from voters across the state," he said. That would provide potential for "a great second step" in tax reform when the Legislature convenes for its regular session in the spring, he said.

The two key provisions of the amendment - doubling the homestead exemption and Save Our Homes portability - were platforms of Gov. Charlie Crist's campaign for the state's top job. Considerable political capital could be riding on the outcome, and the governor is lobbying hard for approval.

Lawmakers frustrated by what they considered the ease of passage of constitutional amendments put a resolution on the 2006 ballot calling for the 60 percent supermajority going forward. The language setting the higher threshold passed with 58 percent of the vote.

Reporter Jerome R. Stockfisch can be reached at (850) 222-8382 or jstockfisch@tampatrib

.com. Keyword: Tax Calculator, to see what you'd save under proposal.

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