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Are They VP Material, Or Are They Not?

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 20, 2007

TAMPA - Gov. Charlie Crist, with a politician's ability to evade interrogation, has been dodging one question more than any other lately: Could he be a candidate for vice president in 2008?

Crist has repeatedly said he is not thinking about it, even though it has been mentioned by presidential candidates and his supporters.

Still, he won't stifle the speculation by ruling it out. That speculation, experts say, does as much as anything to build his national profile and political clout.

As candidates in the Republican primary compete for the endorsement of a popular governor in the nation's largest swing state, it's not likely to go away.

The talk started even before Crist was elected governor last year. John McCain, then GOP primary frontrunner, campaigned with Crist and called him "a player on the national stage."

It has intensified, largely because Crist won the top office in the nation's biggest swing state in an election year when GOP candidates nationwide got clobbered. After 11 months in office, he maintains sky-high approval ratings, with appeal across party and racial lines.

Adding to the allure is his bipartisan governing philosophy, considered likely to appeal to a nation dissatisfied with the current administration's ideological conservatism.

"For any campaign that's smart, he'd be short-listed," said Brian Ballard, a Tallahassee lawyer-lobbyist and veteran GOP fundraiser. "I can't think of anybody that would make a bigger difference in a bigger state."

Many of Crist's Florida supporters and allies like the idea, either because it would increase the value of their connections to Crist, or because it would open the governor's office to ambitious Florida politicians.

Last spring, at the behest of the state House Speaker Marco Rubio, the Legislature passed a law allowing Florida officeholders to run for federal office without giving up their state posts.

Although Rubio denied it, the law was perceived as aimed at making it less risky for Crist to take a running mate slot. If his ticket lost, he could remain as governor; if it won, the governor's office would open for hopefuls, including Rubio.

Promises Still Unfulfilled

However, there are also reasons Crist might not make an ideal running mate or might not want the role.

He has barely begun as governor and still has campaign promises to fulfill before a consensus develops on his record. In a year when Republicans aren't favored to win the presidency, he might be able to build that record better as Florida's governor than as a running mate.

Crist's personal life could be an issue, but not a huge one, University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato said.

Like many unmarried politicians, Crist has long been plagued by unsubstantiated rumors that he's gay, which he denies. During his campaign for governor, he also faced the accusation of having fathered an illegitimate child, who was adopted by a St. Petersburg family 18 years ago. He also denies that.

Such questions won't help, Sabato said, but considering the personal histories of most of the GOP candidates and the Clintons, "This is not exactly a rerun of 'Ozzie and Harriet.' I'd be surprised if voters would suddenly draw a bright line just for the vice-presidential nominee."

Crist as a potential vice president was on full display Oct. 21, with lots of national camera time, when he hosted a televised presidential candidates debate during the state GOP convention in Orlando.

He repeatedly dodged the running mate question. Questioned by one interviewer, Crist responded, "I'm doing everything I can to work as hard as I can every single day for the people of Florida, and it's an honor and a privilege to do so."

He evaded it again in a recent Tampa Tribune interview, calling it "silly speculation at this juncture."

Crist said he is not even sure yet whether he will endorse a candidate in the Republican presidential primary. He acknowledged he has work left to achieve goals set in his campaign.

"The full complement in insurance and property taxes has not yet happened," he said. "When people see the action that we're taking on the insurance front, you'll see this economic engine called Florida take off like a thoroughbred."

The dodges are "a harmless way to build name identification," Sabato said, "leaving the door open, encouraging political tongues to wag, while suggesting he's not focused on the potential promotion.

"He'd be foolish to take his name out of the mix with a Sherman-esque statement" ruling it out.

Political Ambitions

Crist is politically ambitious. Though he practiced law in the 1980s, he has done little else but seek public office. "Public service is what makes me tick," he says frequently.

His political rise has been so rapid opponents have accused him of seeking offices more than results. He went from campaigner to staff aide to then-U.S. Sen. Connie Mack from 1988-92; state senator from 1993-1998; unsuccessful 1998 U.S. Senate candidate; then state education commissioner in 2000, attorney general in 2002 and governor in 2006.

Crist denies seeking offices for the sake of ambition, saying he championed legislative and policy changes all along the way: pushing the Stop Turning Out Prisoners Act as a legislator and implementing Gov. Jeb Bush's No Child Left Behind Act as education commissioner, for example.

His win last year stands out. Florida was the only large state and one of only four states where a Republican won an open governor's race - one with no incumbent running.

"The fact that he was able to win in a swing state is remarkable," Sabato said. "There hasn't been a worse year for Republicans since 1992."

Crist's political orientation, a bipartisan consensus-builder, could be either a help or hindrance in getting on a presidential ticket.

University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson said the candidate most likely to need Crist to "balance the ticket is Mitt Romney, who might want Crist's help winning Florida and adding a moderate side to his own conservative campaign."

Rudy Giuliani is the candidate Crist is considered most likely to endorse in the race, if he endorses anyone - which is increasingly doubtful. Giuliani, also a moderate, may want a conservative on the ticket and may figure he doesn't need help to win Florida.

Fred Thompson, a Southerner, may be less interested in choosing another Southerner, and John McCain also might want a social conservative, Paulson said.

Appearing not to care too much about the job is the best way to get it, Paulson added.

"You run the risk of being seen as a calculating politician."

Close supporters question whether Crist wants the job.

"He is not looking to do this. I don't think he has any particular desire at all for it," Ballard said. "There are a lot of folks who would like it for their own personal careers, to open up the food chain here.

"But there would be legitimate questions whether this was the right move for a guy two years into his term. You don't get a record as a governor in one year."

Mitch Bainwol, former staff chief and political adviser to Mack and friends with Crist for two decades, said Crist "is living his dream. He's always wanted to be governor. ... I know he's very content."

Bainwol, who worked with Mack when Mack was under running mate consideration by Bob Dole in 1996, said it's typical for any successful political figure to have supporters who urge him on to higher office.

He said those who actually work for Crist "are under a clear set of instructions to focus on the here and now. Everything else is a distraction."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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