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Risk Of Failure Raises Urgency Of Mideast Talks

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By KARIN LAUB and STEVEN GUTKIN, The Associated Press

Published: November 25, 2007

JERUSALEM - This week's Mideast peace conference is unlike any previous U.S. attempt to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict because the price of failure has risen dramatically: Radical Islamists could gain the upper hand in Palestinian areas and in an increasingly polarized Middle East.

Perhaps because of these high stakes, the latest bid to partition the Holy Land and end a century of conflict is receiving unprecedented international support, with more than 45 nations to attend the summit at Annapolis, Md.

There may be no better time for relaunching peace talks. Beleaguered leaders are hungry for achievement, most Israelis and Palestinians long for a negotiated settlement and moderate Arab nations appear ready to provide key backing to offset the growing influence of Iran - a reality highlighted by Saudi Arabia's decision Friday to send its foreign minister to Annapolis.

But the region's old demons are threatening new hope. Israel's prime minister is kowtowing to his hawkish coalition partners, the Palestinian president controls only part of his territory and extremists on both sides hold the power to torpedo any progress.

The two-day summit at Annapolis brings together Israelis and Palestinians in a U.S. effort to heal what former President Clinton once compared to an abscessed tooth that only hurts more with time.

At stake is not just Palestinian statehood, but the survival of moderate forces in the Middle East and beyond.

"In this big picture, resolving this dispute is of colossal importance," Mideast envoy Tony Blair said recently. "It is a signal of reconciliation across faiths and cultures. It removes the cause that extremists use above all else to try to ensnare moderates within Islam."

The scope of the conference has been scaled back from trying to outline a peace deal to simply relaunching negotiations in hopes of reaching a settlement before President Bush leaves office in a year. But just getting the sides to talk again is an accomplishment, considering seven years of diplomatic deadlock and fighting that killed 4,400 Palestinians and 1,100 Israelis.

The bitterness of those years is evident in low expectations.

"We are not in the era of hope," said 45-year-old Israeli civil servant Rivka Cohen. "We are now in the era of 'so long as it doesn't get worse.'"

Qassem Abu Khaled, 48, who lost his West Bank carpentry business because of Israeli travel restrictions, said he only trusts actions.

"If they were to change we would have seen signals, like freezing settlement construction or removing checkpoints. But all we see is more building and more restrictions," he said.

Such pessimism has been reinforced by the troubled conference preparations, including failure to write a joint declaration to be presented there. These challenges pale in comparison to what lies ahead, such as drawing borders and dividing Jerusalem.

Past summits outlined the contours of a solution: a Palestinian state based roughly on pre-1967 Mideast War frontiers, shared control of Jerusalem and recognition of the needs of Palestinian refugees.

The biggest question, it seems, is not whether a deal can be reached, but whether it can be implemented.

Israel has reason to fear a handover of the West Bank to the Palestinians. Hamas overran Gaza after Israel's 2005 withdrawal from that territory and then fired missiles at Israeli targets.

Palestinians fear that Israel's expanding settlements and separation barrier jutting deep into Palestinian territory have swallowed so much land that statehood is slipping away.

Both sides recognize the status quo is not sustainable.

"It's either the path of peace and moderation, or the path of drowning in extremism, bloodshed, violence and counter-violence," said Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat.

Former Israeli negotiator Gilead Sher warned that Israel "cannot possibly govern ... the Palestinians for the next 40 years as we did for the last 40 years."

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