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Exceeding Expectations

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By ROY CUMMINGS, The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 25, 2007

TAMPA - They would be better, but not much better. Maybe, a game or two better, but no more.

That's what most of those who make their living predicting NFL playoff races thought about the Bucs before the start of the 2007 season.

You can't blame them, really. The Bucs came into the season having skidded off the tracks the year before, they were 10 games under .500 since winning the Super Bowl and the lineup was full of holes.

Their hopes for improvement rested on an aging quarterback who was moving to his fourth team in four years, a young offensive line that had to mature quickly to keep him upright and a seemingly aging defense.

No wonder some picked them to finish even worse than the dysfunctional Falcons. After going 4-12 in 2006, even 5-11 or 6-10 would have constituted a step forward for this franchise.

Now, 6-10 would be disappointing. Now, 6-10 would constitute a total collapse for a team that leads its division, is already 6-4 and has far exceeded almost all objective expectations.

"I'll tell you right now, I was flat wrong about that team," ESPN senior writer Len Pasquarelli said. "I saw them in training camp, and I wasn't impressed. I saw them as a below-average team. They're significantly better than that."

They're better for a lot of reasons. Let's start with that aging quarterback. Even at 37, Jeff Garcia still runs around the field and makes plays out of nothing as well as anyone in the league. And with 14 years of professional experience, there isn't a lot an opposing defense can show that he hasn't seen. That has allowed him to check out of plays that might not have worked and into plays that have.

It also has allowed Bucs coach Jon Gruden to be a little more creative with his offense, to dig a little deeper into his playbook, to be a little more aggressive with his play calling.

"It's kind of the Rich Gannon factor," said Ken Ilchuk, a scout for Real Football Services, which provides scouting reports for NFL teams as well as periodicals such as The Sporting News.

"Jon finally has a veteran guy there again who can do a lot of different things, and Jon's at his best when he can mix it up like that. That's something he couldn't do with a young guy at quarterback."

Now look at that aging defense. Suddenly, with third-year pro Barrett Ruud at middle linebacker, rookie Tanard Jackson at free safety and a collection of first-year pros up front, it's not so aging anymore.

It is as head-snapping fast and aggressive as it was when it won the Super Bowl, and coordinator Monte Kiffin is once again disguising his intentions so well that even scouts seem confused.

Some said Kiffin has gone back to the basics and is running plays almost exclusively out of the Tampa 2 scheme that he made famous. Others say he's changing up his schemes more than ever.

"All I know is that Monte is proving once again that he is what he is, which is a terrific coach," Pasquarelli said. "He's done a great job getting those young guys going."

Those young guys have helped make the Bucs the fifth hardest team to move the ball on and the second hardest to score on. That's quite an improvement over the 2006 unit, which ranked 17th in yards allowed and 21st in points allowed.

"Getting some of those young guys to become big-time playmakers has really been a factor for them, defensively," NFL scout Chris Landry said. "They've really exceeded a lot of expectations."

The key words in that last sentence were "a lot." They haven't exceeded all expectations. The Real Football scout said his company believed the Bucs would fare much better this year simply because of the addition of Garcia. He also added that "the division has been very accommodating for them."

Landry said he believed early on that the Bucs would probably win their division, if only because the NFC South appeared to be exactly what it has become, a collection of mostly mediocre clubs.

"I thought that if you threw all the teams into a hat, they were going to be pretty good," Landry said. "I thought they'd at least rebound from last season."

Rebounding from last season is one thing. Rebounding from what seems like two season's worth of injuries is quite another. Despite placing a league-high 12 players, including their starting tailback, fullback and left tackle, on injured reserve, the Bucs are on pace to not only make the playoffs but host a first-round game.

Even the most ardent of fans could not have predicted the Bucs would have bounced back from a run of personnel losses that great. But Ilchuk suggested that one loss may have actually helped the Bucs.

Though he says they eventually may wish they had starting tailback Cadillac Williams back, the decision to replace him with previously untried Earnest Graham has added versatility to the offense.

"I can't tell you we thought he'd do what he's doing now but we certainly thought he was more than a training camp body," Ilchuk said of Graham, who leads the Bucs in rushing and ranks third in pass receptions.

"He doesn't have a great strength like Cadillac does, but he's more versatile and a little more physical. I see a little LaMont Jordan in him. If they're running the ball, he just opens everything up."

Graham, Garcia and the defense all have helped the Bucs open up a whole new array of expectations. Most, including Pasquarelli, Landry and Ilchuk, see them winning their division. Beyond that ...

Winning a first-round playoff game against a wild-card team is not only possible, it's likely, Landry and Ilchuk said. Garcia, their speed on defense and homefield advantage would probably give the Bucs the edge.

After that, the picture looks less bright. Neither Real Football nor ESPN analyst Sean Salisbury puts Tampa Bay in the same class as Dallas or Green Bay. If the Bucs won their playoff opener, they likely would travel to play either the Cowboys or Packers in the second round, where they would be decided underdogs.

Landry isn't so sure. Though the injuries to backs such as Williams and Michael Pittman leave him concerned about their ability to run the ball and set up a play-action passing attack, he doesn't rule out a deep playoff run for the Bucs.

"They'd certainly be underdogs in that second game, but you never know," he said. "With the way they play defense, it wouldn't shock me to see them play well in the playoffs. I mean, I don't think it's out of the question that Tampa could fare rather well against a team like Green Bay, because the Packers are not nearly as good at running the ball as Dallas is."

Sooner or later, most everyone sees the Bucs falling out of this playoff race. But as Ilchuk pointed out, even if that's after one game, it still means the Bucs exceeded expectations.

"I think they're a one-win team in the playoffs," he said. "But when you consider the expectations most everyone had going into this year, that would still be a pretty successful year for them."

Reporter Roy Cummings can be reached at (813) 259-7979 or at rcummings@tampatrib.com.

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