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Hurricane Prognosticator Puts Category 3 Storm In Forecast

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 2, 2007

Keyword: Weather Dog, for weather news throughout the day.

TAMPA - The country's best-known forecaster of hurricane seasons issued a new outlook for the next two months, calling for two hurricanes before season's end - one of them growing into a Category 3 or higher.

Today's outlook is the third revision of William Gray's forecast since the 2007 season started June 1, each fine-tuning the number of storms he and his Colorado State University team expects.

The changes demonstrate a difference in the way Gray and another force in forecasting - the federal government - communicate their findings to the public: Gray does it often.

The Colorado State team issues forecasts of hurricane activity in December for the following year; then again in April; on May 31, the eve of the season's start; in August; in September; and finally in October. The season ends Nov. 30.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issues two seasonal forecasts each year, the first in May and the last in August.

Often, though not always, each new forecast from Gray's team tweaks the earlier one.

For example, April's and May's forecasts were unchanged, but the Aug. 1 outlook reduced the number of named storms from 17 to 15 and hurricanes from nine to eight. The forecast on Tuesday bumped the number of named storms back to 17 but cut the number of hurricanes to seven.

"I've had people say it's like betting on a football game at halftime," Gray said. "But that's the way forecasting is done. As we get into the season, why not use the best information we have?"

The National Weather Service, he noted, doesn't issue a weekend forecast on Monday, then keep it unchanged through the week.

Nothing limits NOAA to only two forecasts a season.

"If we decided an update needed to be done, we would do one," said Gerry Bell, lead hurricane expert with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA selected August for its last prediction because climate signals are fairly well in place and it's nearly the start of the season's peak activity.

The federal government uses the predictions to prepare for the season, Bell said. So do local emergency management officials. Also, the outlooks can affect futures markets for commodities, such as citrus or sugar cane, Bell said.

Emergency officials treat the season the same, regardless of how much seasonal outlooks shift, said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist.

"For emergency management, the forecast does not change the way we prepare for the season," he said.

There is some danger that if the frequent forecasts prove inaccurate, people will tune them out, said Holley Wade, spokeswoman for the Hillsborough County Emergency ManAgement Department.

"There always will be a certain percentage of the people who say you're crying wolf," Wade said.

The new forecasts do help keep people aware of the danger from hurricane season.

"Anytime you can put it in front of the public, it's a good thing," Wade said.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com. Keyword: Weather Dog, for weather news throughout the day.

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