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Military Ties Fewer Deaths In Iraq To U.S. Troop Surge

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By STEVEN R. HURST, The Associated Press

Published: October 2, 2007

BAGHDAD - The number of American troops and Iraqi civilians killed in the war fell in September to levels not seen in more than a year. The U.S. military said the lower count was at least partly a result of new strategies and 30,000 additional U.S. forces deployed this year.

Although it is difficult to draw conclusions from a single month's tally, the figures could suggest U.S.-led forces are making headway against extremist factions and disrupting their ability to strike back.

The U.S. military toll for September was 64, the lowest since July 2006, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press from death announcements by the American command and Pentagon.

More dramatic, however, was the decline in Iraqi civilian, police and military deaths. The figure was 988 in September, 50 percent lower than the previous month and the lowest tally since June 2006, when 847 Iraqis died.

The Iraqi death count is considered a minimum based on AP reporting. The actual number is likely higher, as many killings go unreported.

Nevertheless, the heartening numbers emerged just three weeks after U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker and commander Gen. David Petraeus argued before a divided Congress that more time was needed for Iraq to begin seeing results from President Bush's dispatch of an additional 30,000 forces to pacify Baghdad and surrounding regions.

On Monday, Crocker and Petraeus issued an unusual joint statement to the Iraqi people that credited them for the decline in violence.

'We must maintain the momentum that together we have achieved. We are confident that you and your fellow citizens will continue to display determination, that Iraqi security forces will remain vigilant and that additional Iraqis will join our combined effort,' they said.

Col. Steven Boylan, spokesman for Petraeus, said there was 'no silver bullet or one thing' responsible for the declining death tolls. But he credited increased U.S. troop strength, saying that had allowed American forces to step up operations against al-Qaida in Iraq and other insurgent and militia fighters.

Anthony H. Cordesman, former director of intelligence assessment at the Pentagon and analyst with the private Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the decline in violent deaths was a positive trend that does seem to be related to the increase in U.S. forces. He said it was too early to know if it will last.

'We tend to focus too much on killing rather than wounded, on extreme acts of violence rather than patterns of displacement or ethnic cleansing,' he said.

He said that when looking at overall stability in Iraq, killings are only one measure.

'This is, I think one of the great difficulties. It's a very complex pattern of fighting and people look for simple statistical bottom lines rather than the overall pattern,' he said.

Although civilian deaths were sharply lower last month, Baghdad remained the center of violence in percentage terms. For this year, 54 percent of all sectarian killings occurred in the capital and suburbs. That figure declined to just above 49 percent in September. For the year, the next two most violent regions were the provinces of Diyala and Nineveh.

In the latest U.S. deaths, the military reported that an American soldier was killed and 10 were wounded Monday in combat operations in central Baghdad. The same day, a soldier was killed and another was wounded in a noncombat accident in Qadisiyah province.

BY THE NUMBERS

Casualties

•Confirmed U.S. military deaths as of Oct. 1: 3,800

•Confirmed U.S. military wounded as of Oct. 1: 28,009

•U.S. military deaths for September: 63, lowest monthly toll since June 2006.

•Deaths of civilian employees of U.S. government contractors as of June 30: 1,001.

•Iraqi civilian deaths from war-related violence: Estimated at more than 73,000. According to Associated Press figures, there were at least 988 Iraqi deaths in September, the lowest monthly toll since June 2006.

•Assassinated Iraqi academics: 332.

•Journalists killed on assignment: 112.

Cost

•Stepped-up military operations are costing about $12 billion a month, with Iraq accounting for $10 billion a month, according to congressional analysis.

•Total cost to the U.S. government so far is more than $455 billion. A January study by Linda Bilmes of Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government put the total projected cost of providing medical care and disability benefits to veterans of Iraq and Afghanistan at $350 billion to $700 billion.

Oil Production

•Prewar: 2.58 million barrels a day.

•Sept. 23: 2.31 million barrels a day.

Source: The Associated Press

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