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Feels-Like Temperatures Could Top 100 Degrees In Tampa Area

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 18, 2007

Updated: 10/18/2007 03:44 pm

Blog: More Weather News

TAMPA - Patience, folks. Eventually what even the National Weather Service forecasters in Ruskin are calling our endless summer will have an end.

Maybe by Wednesday.

Until then, we'll have at least another day with heat index temperatures approaching 100 or higher as rampant humidity combines with heat that more resembles September's than the norm for the third week of October.

In fact, the forecast for Friday of 88 would flirt with the Oct. 19 record high of 89 that came in 1993.

We'll continue to simmer through the weekend, with temperatures in the high 80s and plenty of moisture, as the tail-end of a low-pressure area passes by and boosts the chance for rain.

If the forecast models are accurate, it would be Monday night and Tuesday morning before a front moves through,
That passing front could bring squalls and the potential for severe thunderstorms early next week as the dry mass of air from the front collides with the warm, humid air over the state, said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist.

By Wednesday, though, we could get the payoff, the weather service says.

The front that approaches should contain some true Arctic air, the first of the season to reach as far south as Florida.

"It will be a change maker," said Barry Goldsmith, weather service meteorologist in Ruskin.

Temperatures Wednesday night might even fall into the high 50s in and around Tampa and maybe the 40s in Hernando County, he said. The lower temperatures could even arrive as early as Tuesday night if the front passes quickly.

If the front is potent enough, the mass of cooler, dry air could flush the tropical moisture from the state that has helped extend summer-like temperatures this far into October.

Once that happens, Goldsmith said, it is difficult for the atmosphere to return to the moist, hot conditions before another front arrives, though there will be periods of warm weather.

All this, however, is if the forecast models are correct in the timing of the front and estimates of its strength, Nelson said.

"You're still looking a week away. I don't know if I'd place a bet on it yet," he said.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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