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Relief From The Dog Days Of Autumn May Come Soon

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By NEIL JOHNSON, The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 19, 2007

TAMPA - Patience. Eventually our endless summer will have an end.

Maybe by Wednesday.

Until then, we'll have at least another day with heat index temperatures approaching 100 or higher as humidity combines with heat that more resembles September's than the norm for the third week of October.

Thursday's high of 88 degrees in Tampa flirted with the record high of 90 set in 1989. The overnight low of 77 degrees set a record as the warmest overnight temperature ever recorded in Tampa on Oct. 18.

We'll continue to simmer through the weekend, with temperatures in the high 80s and plenty of moisture, as the tail end of a low-pressure area passes by and boosts the chance of rain.

If the forecast models are accurate, it would be Monday night and Tuesday morning before a front moves through.

That passing front could bring squalls and the potential for severe thunderstorms early next week as the dry mass of air from the front collides with the warm, humid air over the state, said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist.

By Wednesday, though, we could get the payoff, the National Weather Service says.

The front that approaches should contain some true Arctic air, the first of the season to reach as far south as Florida.

'It will be a change-maker,' said Barry Goldsmith, weather service meteorologist in Ruskin.

Temperatures Wednesday night might even fall into the high 50s in and around Tampa, and maybe the 40s in Hernando County, he said.

If the front is potent enough, the mass of cooler, dry air could flush the tropical moisture from the state that has helped extend summerlike temperatures this far into October.

Once that happens, Goldsmith said, it is difficult for the atmosphere to return to the moist, hot conditions before another front arrives, though there will be periods of warm weather.

All this, however, is if the forecast models are correct in the timing of the front and estimates of its strength, Nelson said.

'You're still looking a week away. I don't know if I'd place a bet on it yet,' he said.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com. Keyword: Weather Dog, for Tribune weather reporter Neil Johnson's coverage of Tampa Bay weather throughout the day.

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