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It's Still Hot. Still Sticky. Where's Fall?

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By NEIL JOHNSON, The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 24, 2007

TAMPA - Go ahead. Complain about the heat. You've got a reason.

Barring an unlikely burst of cold weather in the next seven days - and we mean really cold - this October will almost certainly become the hottest on record for Tampa.

Extending summer weather to a week from Halloween takes some of the thrill from hunting for the holiday's iconic gourd.

'This is real unusual,' said Alena Barber, picking out a pumpkin with her children Tuesday at the St. Paul Catholic Church pumpkin patch, on Dale Mabry Boulevard near Fletcher Avenue. 'Even just a little cool weather would make a difference.'

Sweltering days and nights that seldom cool below 70 add up to an average temperature so far of 81.1 degrees. That's on pace to break the record for October of 80.4 set in 1919.

Meteorologists don't expect some sudden surge of Arctic air to provide any relief. Long-range forecast models predict above-average temperatures for the next 10 to 14 days, said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist.

The month is close to entering the record books because of high pressure stubbornly hugging the Southeast. High pressure brings warm temperatures, and air moving clockwise around the high is pumping moisture over the state.

Besides making the daytime feel closer to summer than fall, the humidity also keeps nights from cooling. That means days often start out 10 degrees warmer than usual.

As long as the high pressure remains off the Eastern Seaboard, things won't change much, Nelson said. The weather will be warm and humid.

'There's no indication it's going to budge anytime soon. It's hitting a brick wall,' he said.

'You're having a hard time getting rid of summer. Maybe sometime in November.'

The heat is even sapping desire for pumpkins.

Pumpkin sales at the Lake Magdalene United Methodist Church, just down Fletcher from St. Paul's, are off by about 25 percent, said Bob Blagg, youth director for the church.

'Normally the first couple days of cold weather, people come out,' Blagg said. 'We're waiting for that. Once it drops into the 70s, people come in carloads.'

The warm nights are raising more serious concerns than comfort. They extend the threat of hurricanes. This time of year, when most storms come from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, high temperatures at night keep the water from cooling.

'The Gulf temperatures stay high. You need to have nighttime temperatures below 65,' Nelson said. 'I'd be very surprised not to get something between now and the end of the season.'

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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