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Johnson's Chance To Pass Gordon Is Right On Track

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By Tony Fabrizio, The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 24, 2007

Three of the four races remaining in the Chase for the Nextel Cup are on 1 1/2 -mile tracks, and that appears to give defending champion Jimmie Johnson a small advantage over the man he is chasing: teammate and four-time champion Jeff Gordon.

'It's still in our control,' Johnson said Tuesday, two days after catching his season-high seventh victory of the season Sunday at Martinsville. 'I still think we can race our way into the championship, but it's certainly going to be a good fight all the way to the end.'

Gordon leads Johnson by 53 points, and the two have separated themselves from all but dark-horse Clint Bowyer, who is still in the picture at 115 points back. Johnson has been better than Gordon the past few years on 1 1/2 -mile tracks, the most common size track on the circuit.

•Two of Johnson's seven victories this year and six of his 16 victories over the past three seasons have come on 1 1/2 -mile tracks, compared to one of six and two of 12 for Gordon.

•In the four races on 1 1/2 -mile tracks this year in which neither driver wrecked, Johnson finished ahead of Gordon three times. Gordon finished ahead of Johnson two weeks ago at Charlotte, winning the race after Johnson, who led a race-high 95 laps, spun himself out.

•Johnson has a better career average finish than Gordon at all three of the remaining 1 1/2 -mile tracks.

Tough At Atlanta

Next up is Sunday's Pep Boys 500 at Atlanta, where Johnson has finished first or second in four of the past six races and Gordon has an average finish of 16.2 (counting one crash) over the same span.

Putting too much stock in any of this would be a mistake, though. Gordon has been strong everywhere in 2007, and he's racing with more determination (and better cars) than he has had in years.

Gordon says he doesn't see himself as an underdog at Atlanta or anyplace else.

'I look back at our last Atlanta race 12th in the Kobalt Tools 500 in March, when Johnson won and some of the mistakes we made, but we had an awesome race car,' he said. 'I love Atlanta. It's one of my favorite racetracks, and I'm looking forward to going there.'

Recent history clearly favors Johnson at Atlanta, but it's less obvious at the other two intermediate tracks: Texas and Homestead.

No Wins For Either

Neither driver has won at Texas or Homestead. Johnson's average finish at Texas is 8.2 in eight starts, including a wreck there this spring. Gordon's average finish there is 15.8 in 13 starts. At Homestead, Johnson's average finish is 14.5 in six starts (including a 40th-place finish in the 2005 finale), while Gordon's is 15.0 in eight starts.

At the one remaining track that isn't 1 1/2 miles - 1-mile Phoenix - Johnson has an average finish of 7.2 without winning in eight starts, while Gordon has an average finish of 8.2 and a win there this spring in 17 starts.

'I look at Atlanta and think there may be a chance for gaining points,' Johnson said. 'Texas has kind of been a wash for either one of us. I do feel in the spring, though, we were running well and had a chance but had an engine problem. Phoenix, I think Jeff has been a little stronger there than I have lately, and then Homestead has kind of been a wash.

'I don't see a lot of big opportunities to really get in there and take advantage of or exploit a track that's not good for the No. 24.'

This Chase is no longer about big opportunities. It's about small differences, and history gives a tenuous nod to Johnson.

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