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Primary Conflict Saps Democrats

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By WILLIAM MARCH, The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 27, 2007

ORLANDO - The Democratic presidential candidates' boycott of the Florida Democratic Party's state convention this weekend in Orlando has hurt party enthusiasm and may harm the Democratic nominee's chances of winning the state in November, some party activists fear.

Others disagree. But there's no question the struggle over the primary has left a sour taste in the mouths of state Democrats.

'It's frustrating to me, with victory within our grasp, to see the party doing everything they can to lose it,' said Bob Buckhorn, former Tampa city council member and longtime supporter of Democratic candidates.

He's undecided in the race, and wants to see the candidates in person. He'd be going to the convention if they were there, he said, but he's staying home.

'As Florida goes, so goes the nation. When you put at risk a critical swing state, you put victory at risk in a year when victory ought to be ours,' Buckhorn said.

Signs of the disillusionment are visible at the convention, though party activists are reluctant to admit it.

In early August, Florida Democrats got e-mail warning them the hotel for their state convention was full, and the backup hotel was filling fast.

But a couple of weeks ago - after the boycott was announced - many attendees found vacancies suddenly open at the main hotel, and switched their reservations.

The party says that's because rooms for the candidates and their staffs became available. But they also say 2,600 delegates registered for the event, compared with a figure of 4,000 given out for the comparable event in 2003.

Even Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, in his convention speech today, plans to denounce the sanctions and the 'party bosses in Washington' - in essence, attacking his own party from the party convention podium.

State party Chairwoman Karen Thurman denied that the spirit of the attendees is affected.

'It's about us coming together to show we're strong and united,' regardless of the sanctions, she said.

'Not Down And Despondent'

Veteran party activist Linda Russell of Tallahassee held a 60th birthday party for Hillary Clinton - without Clinton being present - on the opening night of the convention Friday.

'We're not down and despondent,' she said. 'True party activists will not be stopped by Iowa or New Hampshire or South Carolina or anyone else' - a reference to three of the early primary states that inspired the boycott.

But Betty Morgenstein of St. Petersburg, who along with her husband, Harvey, attended the party, said, 'We feel hurtful about it. We're very disappointed. We feel this is our election to win.'

By contrast, she noted, last weekend's state Republican convention, where the top GOP candidates spent most of two days courting party activists and then engaged in a nationally televised debate, generated national headlines.

The headliners at this event are House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer of Maryland, and House Democratic Caucus Chair Bob Menendez of New Jersey.

The boycott and sanctions stem from the Jan. 29 presidential primary date set by the state Legislature - too early for the schedules set by both national parties.

In response, the national party says it won't seat a Florida delegation at next summer's national convention, rendering the Florida primary vote moot. Meanwhile, the early states that were allowed January primaries demanded the candidates boycott Florida until the primary.

The imbroglio also could affect the outcome of the race.

Conventions are about energizing the party's base, the volunteers who will work at phone banks and rallies, go door-to-door and drive voters to polls in the November election.

'It's to motivate them, excite them, get them prepared to work over the next year,' said Frank Sanchez of Tampa, a key volunteer for Barack Obama.

For those who haven't yet picked a candidate, seeing them in person is crucial.

'You can get a measure of their organization, determine their personal warmth, substance and sincerity,' said Buckhorn. 'That's very hard to do sitting on the couch watching your big-screen.'

Convention-goers, looking for a winner, check out everything from the candidate's handshake to the graciousness of the potential first lady or gentleman - chiefly, the candidate's ability to motivate a crowd, said University of South Florida political scientist John Belohlavek.

Belohlavek, a former campaign strategist for Democratic candidates, was a delegate backing Bob Kerrey at the 1992 Florida state convention, where he saw Bill Clinton.

'At that moment, I knew we Kerrey backers were toast,' he said. 'Clinton walks in and just lights up the room.'

Republicans Are Delighted

'There's a ripple effect,' he said. 'People talk to other people, and they say, 'Not only will I vote for him, I'll work for him.' The Democrats are missing that.'

Florida Republicans, of course, are delighted.

State GOP Chairman Jim Greer promises to remind voters of the boycott throughout the coming campaign, and GOP frontrunner Rudy Giuliani mentions it in nearly every Florida stump speech.

Many Democrats say it won't matter.

'The issues at the national level are so serious that 10 months after Jan. 29, people are going to be much more concerned about our foreign policy, the war in Iraq, health care, than about an internal party squabble,' said Sanchez. The harm to the nominee, he said, will be 'Zero.'

Former Hillsborough County party Chairwoman Janee Murphy, also at the convention, isn't worried, either.

'What the Bush administration has done and what's happening on Capitol Hill and in Iraq cannot be erased,' she said. 'The issues we're having with the primary are not going to overshadow that.'

But not all party strategists are that optimistic.

'Is it a distraction? You bet it is. Does it make winning a general election harder? Of course,' said Karl Koch of Tampa, top Florida strategist for Bill Clinton in 1996 and Al Gore in 2000.

Koch said the boycott will hinder the candidates in setting up the campaign organizations they'll need next year - making personal contact with people who will become 'field generals' coordinating volunteers.

But he doesn't think that means Democrats will lose Florida in 2008.

When they're attacked by Republicans over the boycott, he said, 'The response from Obama or Edwards or Hillary will be, 'I'm here now, let's talk about our country's needs and the important decisions we have to make.''

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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