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Despite Projected Turn, Noel Could Affect Florida

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 30, 2007

Updated: 10/30/2007 11:44 am

TAMPA - Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center expect the center of Tropical Storm Noel to remain over Cuba through the day and emerge over open water by Wednesday.

The storm weakened slightly this morning, its winds dropping to 45 mph down from 60 mph as it moved roughly west over Cuba.

Forecasts call for Noel to make a sharp right turn before reaching Florida.

Despite that forecast, the hurricane center warns that South Florida could go under a tropical storm watch later today or Wednesday if Noel travels farther west than expected before turning out to sea.

A watch mean tropical storm winds of more than 39 mph are possible in 36 hours.

A hurricane watch in the northwestern Bahamas was lifted this morning, although most of the vulnerable, low-lying archipelago remained under a tropical storm warning.

Floridians should know by Wednesday whether the storm will make its forecast turn and head into the Atlantic Ocean.

With the storm spending so much time over land, forecasters no longer expect Noel to reach hurricane strength. Also, shear should increase in the storm's projected path over the next few days.

The hurricane center expects Noel's winds to peak at about 60 mph on Friday. By then, the storm is forecast to be well east of the United States and moving northeast.

Today, Noel is being pushed west at about 10 mph by an area of high pressure to its north.

The hurricane center forecasters said a trough should move over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday, and circulation around the low pressure should push Noel out into the Atlantic.

All of the computer forecast models agree on the trough pushing Noel to the northeast, although the timing of that trough's arrival will determine how close the storm comes to Florida.

The storm is fairly lopsided, with its strongest winds on the northern and eastern sides. As it passes the state, tropical storm-strength winds will extend about 85 miles west of the center toward Florida.

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