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Early Polls Are All Guesswork

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By JOEY JOHNSTON, The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 3, 2007

It was part-Chaminade, part-Buster Douglas, part-George Mason, part-Miracle on Ice.

The type of upset that never happens in college football - Appalachian State 34, Michigan 32 - suddenly dropped into our lives Saturday afternoon, and we immediately had questions.

• Was this really what the new Big Ten Network had in mind for its debut game?

• Wouldn't it be great to own the campus store that sells Appalachian State T-shirts and hats?

• Why can't we just do away with preseason rankings?

The new Associated Press poll won't be released until Tuesday afternoon - taking into account tonight's Florida State-Clemson game - but it wouldn't be surprising if the Wolverines go from No. 5 to unranked. That's the anticipated backlash.

Let's remember a couple of things.

Appalachian State is the two-time defending Division I-AA national champion. The Mountaineers can play a little bit.

(Full disclosure: Happenstance found me dining at a local sports restaurant with the Appalachian State-Michigan game playing just overhead. Yep, it was classic right place, right time. Within just a few jaw-dropping minutes, it was evident Appalachian State had a great quarterback - Armanti Edwards - and playmakers galore).

Michigan's season has not ended. The Wolverines are talented enough to win the Big Ten and still get to the Rose Bowl. Maybe they can even beat Ohio State (OK, let's not go that far). They still have a dynamic offensive trio in quarterback Chad Henne, running back Mike Hart and wide receiver Mario Manningham.

But can that happen? Were they ever the fifth-best team in college football?

Probably not.

It was easy to get intoxicated by the returning offensive talent. It was easy to overlook all those personnel losses on defense, assuming that more elite-level athletes could be plugged into the equation. It was easy to think No. 5 sounded about right because, well, Michigan was Michigan.

In college football, though, the rankings aren't just for bragging rights. They establish most of the power structure for the Bowl Championship Series. Where you start can be a big indicator of where you finish. And the main agenda is set several weeks before the first game.

The Harris Interactive Poll, going into its third season as part of the BCS formula after the AP dropped out, doesn't begin until October, after the season has taken shape. Good thing. But in previous seasons, the Harris poll was practically a mirror of the USA Today (coaches) and AP polls.

The best method would be to let everyone play for six weeks, then start all the polls. That way, the contenders would be reinforced and the pretenders would be exposed. There would be more evidence, less guesswork.

Michigan has more to worry about than the BCS standings, though. If Lloyd Carr can coach Michigan through September without the wheels coming off - never a strength, by the way - perhaps he can distance himself from the negativity. That's no easy task. From this day forward, Michigan will always be something of a punchline, a symbol of what went wrong, the team that once fell to Appalachian State.

College football's all-time winningest program could be defined by a loss.

Reporter Joey Johnston can be reached at (813) 259-7353 or jjohnston@tampatrib.com.

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