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Published: September 16, 2007
Updated: 09/16/2007 01:12 am
LOUDON, N.H. - Race drivers often say a race can't be won on the first lap but can easily be lost.
The old maxim also could be applied to the Chase for the Championship.
NASCAR's 10-race showdown won't be won in today's opening Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire International Speedway. But history shows that drivers who have a bad Chase start have trouble recovering.
About the only exception is Jimmie Johnson. He finished 39th in last year's Sylvania 300 after his engine lost power in one cylinder early in the race and he got caught in a wreck back in traffic. Johnson dropped to 129 points out of first with that finish but rallied to win his first championship.
'It's really important to do well in the opener, but there are variables that are out of the competitors' hands that control this whole thing,' Johnson said. 'Last year I had a lot of bad races and then some other guys finally did, and that really dictates it.'
Others haven't been as fortunate as Johnson.
In the first year of the Chase three years ago, Ryan Newman blew an engine and Jeremy Mayfield and Tony Stewart damaged their cars when Robby Gordon, who wasn't in the Chase, tried to pay back Greg Biffle for spinning him out earlier.
Newman came back the following week to win at Dover, but he never got higher than seventh in the points, which is where he finished. Stewart never recovered and finished sixth, and Mayfield wound up last.
In 2005, Kurt Busch opened the defense of his 2004 championship with a 35th-place finish at New Hampshire after Scott Riggs wrecked him on the third lap. Busch followed with a 23rd-place finish the following week at Dover and was basically done as a contender.
Last year, Kasey Kahne entered the Chase with a series-leading five wins. He finished a mediocre 16th at New Hampshire and despite winning later at Charlotte, never became a factor in the championship.
'Every race in the final 10 is equally important ... but it's nice not to start off in a big hole,' said Matt Kenseth, who has managed top-10 finishes at New Hampshire in all three of his Chase appearances. 'If you start off decent, it's nice not to have to push the panic button because you're 200 points behind or whatever it could be.'
In 2005, Stewart opened the Chase with a stout second-place finish behind Newman and his Chase results were much different. He went on to win his second championship.
Stewart says the key at New Hampshire is to have a car that's handling well enough to keep a driver ahead of the trouble that often occurs in traffic.
'If you miss on something here, it can be a miserable day,' he said. 'It seems like you don't see but three of four guys that really hit it. That's what makes a day at New Hampshire miserable when you miss it.'
Busch says that after getting off to a bad start in the 2005 Chase and missing it last year, he's determined to get a good finish today.
'Consistency is going to pay dividends,' he said. 'I'd be surprised if you don't see the top 10 finishers today be Chase drivers. It's going to be that intense, and I think with the caliber of drivers we have in this Chase, they're going to push each other harder each week.'
The Chase has 12 drivers for the first time - two more than in previous years - and among them are five former champions (Johnson, Stewart, Busch, Kenseth and Jeff Gordon). Johnson, Gordon and Stewart are considered the favorites, but Busch and Carl Edwards come in with momentum, and nobody is overlooking Denny Hamlin.
Clint Bowyer and Martin Truex Jr., the two underdogs in the field, start up front today. Bowyer will be looking for a much better result than he had at New Hampshire in July, when after racing his way into the top 10, he ran over an air gun and it somehow wrapped itself under his car, cutting an oil line.
'I'm really excited about our chances to win our first race right here,' Bowyer said. 'That would be so cool to get our first win in the first race of the Chase and get that confidence and that momentum going. We saw it with Martin Truex Jr. winning at Dover in June. As soon as he got that win, he rattled off three top-three finishes and put himself in this Chase. I really think that would catapult this team to the next level.'
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