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Will Obama Play In Florida?

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By WILLIAM MARCH

The Tampa Tribune

Published: April 1, 2008

TAMPA - In fall 2000, Al Gore and George W. Bush visited Tampa so often you'd have thought they were running for sheriff of Hillsborough County instead of president of the United States.

In the last two weeks before the 2004 election, the Tampa Bay area hosted four visits by Bush, two by John Kerry and one each by his running mate John Edwards, Edwards' wife, Elizabeth, and Laura Bush.

Florida was the nation's premier presidential battleground, getting millions in advertising money and endless attention from the candidates.

That might not happen this year.

Some question whether Barack Obama, the Democratic front-runner, will spend the huge amounts of campaign time and money it takes to fight for Florida if he becomes the nominee.

The reason is simple: Florida is one of the most expensive states in the nation in which to campaign, and Democrats don't have to win it to win the presidency.

"Since you don't need it and it costs so much to play, it's an argument that will be had," said Derek Newton, a veteran Miami Democratic political consultant. "I think they should, but it's not a sure thing."

Ohio or traditionally Republican Western states, considered to be in play this year, could replace Florida as a hoped-for source of electoral votes to put Obama or Hillary Rodham Clinton over the top, some strategists speculate.

Partly because of the Clintons' long-standing ties to Florida, she's considered less likely to abandon Florida than Obama if she becomes the nominee.

Obama has been more consistent and adamant than Clinton in insisting the state's Jan. 29 primary was meaningless and shouldn't count, even at the risk of alienating Florida voters.

Some, including Clinton backers, have called that an indication he would prefer to fight a general election battle elsewhere. Last week, Clinton spokesman Phil Singer accused Obama of "effectively ceding the states of Florida and Michigan," both of whose primary votes are in dispute.

Obama and his strategists, however, insist they plan to start organizing in Florida as soon as he becomes the nominee and "campaign vigorously" here.

"We are definitely going to go after Florida with everything we have in November, and we have reason to think we'll do well," said Frank Sanchez of Tampa, a top Obama adviser and fundraiser in Florida.

Asked recently whether Obama might concede Florida, spokeswoman Jen Psaki called it "a ridiculous question."

No campaign is ever likely to admit publicly a decision not to contest a state, though. And according to strategists from the past two Democratic campaigns, it's probably not such a ridiculous question.

Decisions Questioned

The decision to target Florida was controversial both times, they said.

"The process in 2000 with Gore was combative," said Gore strategist Tad Devine. "Many people said Florida should not be targeted. I would sit at a table and say 'Florida,' and people would say, 'You've got to be kidding.'"

Devine believes the decision was correct, but undone by the infamous 2000 recount - "I think we got a lot more votes for Gore; we just couldn't get them counted."

Kerry targeted Florida in 2004 but didn't make it the "apex" of his strategy as Gore did, pollster Mark Mellman said.

"The question always is maximizing the impact of the limited time and the limited dollars," he said. "There was a discussion about the relative mix of time and money to go to Florida versus Ohio or other states."

Democrats have now targeted Florida in two consecutive elections, and Bush put the state's 27 electoral votes in the bank both times.

Does it make sense for them to try again?

"I would argue we don't know the answer to that yet," Devine said. "It's a changing state - it's not a static electorate like Pennsylvania. There are always lots of people coming in."

The Largest Swing State

Florida's special status in presidential elections results from its position in the Electoral College.

It's the fourth-largest state, with the fourth-largest number of electoral votes. Of the top four, however, it's the only one considered a swing state.

California, with 55 electoral votes, and New York with 31 are reliably Democratic. Texas, with 34, is reliably Republican.

For a Republican, that means Florida is a must-win. A GOP candidate must add Florida to Texas to build the foundation for an Electoral College majority of 270 or more.

"There are only a few states that by themselves could swing the election - Ohio's one, and Florida's one," Mellman said.

If Democrats fight for Florida, "They have to come in here and win it," said David Beattie, a veteran, Florida-based Democratic pollster. "If we cede it, they can move their resources to the other states."

In 2000, Gore made a decision late in the race to pull about $1 million in advertising money out of Ohio and send it to Florida, essentially banking his campaign on the state.

Nonetheless, he came close to winning in Ohio, while Bush got Florida's electoral votes.

"If he hadn't made that decision, he might be president now," said Thomas Schaller, a University of Maryland-Baltimore County political scientist specializing in presidential politics.

But Schaller said Florida won't disappear from the Democrats' electoral map.

That map, he said, is becoming more predictable - only four states switched sides between 2000 and 2004.

"We're going to be fighting over the same eight to 10 states as in 2004," and Florida is among them, he said - possibly more so because of the end of the Bush era, in which Jeb Bush held the governor's mansion during both his brother's campaigns.

Several Factors Influence Choice

Beattie said the presidential campaigns will decide during the summer which states to target intensely, based on polling data, focus groups, political trends and the makeup of the ticket.

Citing the election of Florida Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the re-election of Sen. Bill Nelson and Democratic gains in Congress and the state House, he said 2006 was "the best election year the Democrats have had in the state in several decades," a trend that should convince the nominee to play here.

Mellman, however, said Ohio "is going to be seen as slightly more fertile ground than Florida," citing the 2006 election of a Democratic governor and senator. Both replaced Republicans after the former administration was dogged by corruption issues and a flagging economy.

Also, Devine said Obama "might be willing to concede Florida if he can make headway in New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri or Colorado" - the state where Democrats are holding their national convention. The Western states are considered to be in play because of increasing numbers of Hispanic voters there.

Polling data and recent elections aren't the only consideration, though.

"At some level, it's also a personal decision by the candidate," Mellman said.

"It's hard to imagine a Democratic candidate not targeting Florida," he said. "The image of 2000 is so seared into Democrats' brains."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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