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There Is No Science To Scheduling

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By MARTIN FENNELLY | The Tampa Tribune

Published: April 17, 2008

TAMPA - Here's how the 2008 Bucs schedule shapes up:

Win, win, loss, win, loss, loss, loss, loss, win, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win.

Goodnight, everybody!

Yes, there's more to it than that, and I'm sure all of you Bucs androids have been studying reams of data since the schedule became official and white smoke was seen coming from Jon Gruden's ears.

Which reminds us that Pope Benedict XVI is in town, or at least country. The pontiff visited the White House on Wednesday and later this week will say Mass at Yankee Stadium and at the foot of Tiger Woods' arthroscopic knee.

Anyway, the point is that there's really no point breaking down any NFL schedule into its basic enzyme groups. It will all change before we get to the end. Good will be bad, bad will be good. Then again, if I had to choose between schedule analysis and mock drafts ...

Take The Analysis

The 2007 Bucs season, that magical ride into and right out of the playoffs, was made from just such a good-gone-bad scenario. Michael Vick's dog days, the disappointing Saints and the schizophrenic Panthers had as much to do with the Bucs' playoff berth as Jeff Garcia's arm.

Could we have predicted all that?

Let history be our teacher. Does anyone really doubt that when the 1775 schedule came out, the British Empire saw "at Thirteen Colonies" and laughed?

You can never tell.

Yes, there are a few nice things about the 2008 schedule. There will be no cold-weather games, and the bye comes in Week 10, just the kind of spot where coaches and players usually like it.

And, yes, at New Orleans and then home to Atlanta doesn't seem a bad way to start, particularly if Saints coach Sean Payton loses his play-calling mind the way he did in the Superdome last season.

But does anyone really have any idea what kind of Bears team the Bucs will meet in Chicago on Sept. 21? Or what kind of Broncos team they'll see in Denver the following week?

We're pretty sure Seattle will bring something to the table in Tampa in mid-October, and that the ensuing Bucs trip to Dallas could be a sign of just how Gruden's team will roll in 2008. We don't know if it will be uphill or downhill. We just don't.

Could you have predicted all the Bucs surprises last season? Could you have predicted Greg White before last season? Could you have predicted Earnest Graham? Could you have predicted Garcia getting injured? Oh, OK, you could predict that last one, but what else?

Yes, the Packers will be Favre-less when they visit Tampa early in the year, and Warrick Dunn will have a lot to prove against the Falcons.

Adrian Peterson (Vikings, Nov. 16) and LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers, Dec. 21) are handfuls, but the Bucs defense sometimes has very strong hands. The Chiefs (Nov. 2) are not very good, but they throw a great home game now and again. Who knows what to expect from the Lions after their Jekyll-and-Hyde 2007?

Oh, almost forgot:

Who knows what to expect from the Bucs?

It's All Guesswork

The reason you can't figure a schedule by last year's results is because last year's results are no guide. If they were, the same teams would make the playoffs every season - and they rarely do.

It's guesswork at this point. Before last season, did you think the Bucs would be in a position to sit starters the last two weeks of 2007, three weeks if you count how those starters played against the Giants in the playoffs? By the way, did you pick the Giants to go all the way?

There's no schedule science.

All together now:

It's why they play the games.

Was that the pope I heard?

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