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Researchers Raise Estimates Of New AIDS Infections In U.S.

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Los Angeles Times

Published: August 3, 2008

Federal officials have been underestimating the number of new AIDS infections in the United States by 40 percent every year for more than a decade, researchers said Saturday.

Using sophisticated testing to identify new infections, the national Centers for Disease Control and Prevention concluded there are about 56,300 new infections each year - not the 40,000 that has been gospel for so long.

The new numbers do not mean that the epidemic is growing, just that researchers have been able to provide more accurate estimates, said Kevin Fenton, director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD and TB Prevention.

In fact, he said, the number of new infections has remained relatively constant since the late 1990s.

Epidemiologist and AIDS expert Philip Alcabes of Hunter College of the City University of New York noted that the revision indicates "there are roughly 225,000 more people living with HIV in the U.S. than previously suspected."

More than 15,000 Americans die of AIDS each year.

The apparent leveling of incidence has masked some disturbing trends, Fenton added.

While infections have been falling among heterosexuals and intravenous drug users, the rate has been rising among gay men and young blacks and Hispanics.

Gay men accounted for 53 percent of all new infections in 2006, the most recent year for which data are available. Infection rates among blacks were seven times as high as among whites, while the rate among Hispanics was nearly three times as high.

The new data will be unveiled formally today at the International AIDS Conference in Mexico City and published this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

The new estimates are certain to bring calls for increased spending to combat the epidemic. Nongovernment organizations had been calling for the United States to spend another $300 million per year in addition to the existing $700 million.

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