TBO.com - TBO is Tampa Bay Online

Hurricane Expert Gray Raises Ante In Forecast Update

ADVERTISEMENT

By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 5, 2008

TAMPA - With a third of the hurricane season in the books and the busiest 10 weeks ahead, William Gray and his team of forecasters have boosted the number of storms expected this season.

The Colorado State University professor's latest seasonal outlook now calls for 17 named storms this year, an increase from the 15 he and researcher Phil Klotzbach predicted in early June.

Gray, who has issued predictions of seasonal hurricane activity since 1984, said conditions in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and especially warm water during June and July presage more hurricane activity.

The newest prediction calls for nine of the 17 named storms to become hurricanes. Of those, Gray and Klotzbach expect five to grow into major hurricanes with winds exceeding 111 mph.

The long-term average for a hurricane season is nine named storms, six hurricanes and two becoming major storms of Category 3 or higher.

So far there have been five named storms, including hurricanes Dolly and Bertha.

Gray's forecast covers the entire season, meaning if the prediction holds there would be 12 more named storms, seven more hurricanes, including five major storms by the time the season ends on Nov. 30.

The team's forecasts do not say where individual storms will go, though the outlook is for a 67 percent chance of a Category 3 or stronger hurricane hitting the United States.

The long-term average of a major storm striking the United States for any hurricane season is 52 percent.

Gray and Klotzbach also predict that August will have four named storms, with three becoming hurricanes and one of those being a major storm.

The peak of hurricane season runs from roughly the middle of August through September, when conditions in the Atlantic ripen for hurricanes to form.

There is a slight chance that conditions in the Pacific could disrupt the forecast, Klotzbach said. There is a small possibility of water warming near the equator enough for a weak El Niño to form near the end of the season.

The warmer than normal water causes changes in winds high in the atmosphere that can disrupt the formation of hurricanes.

If that happens, the season could see fewer storms than forecast.

Though water in the eastern Pacific has been growing slightly warmer since early April, the national Climate Prediction Center does not expect an El Niño to form through at least the fall.

Gray will issue another seasonal prediction in early September and in October.

Gray's forecast is close to the outlook the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration put out in late May.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists expect the season to have 12 to 16 named storms and six to nine hurricanes, with two to five of those becoming major hurricanes.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

Share this:

Loading Comments...

Email Print

ADVERTISEMENT