TBO.com - TBO is Tampa Bay Online

GOP Label No Longer Grand With Many Voters

ADVERTISEMENT

The New York Times

Published: August 5, 2008

Well before Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain rose to the top of their parties, a partisan shift was under way at the local and state level. For more than three years starting in 2005, there has been a reduction in the number of voters who register with the Republican Party and a rise among voters who affiliate with Democrats and, almost as often, with no party at all.

While the implications of the changing landscape for Obama and McCain are far from clear, voting experts say the numbers may signal the beginning of a move away from Republicans that could affect local, state and national politics during several election cycles. Already, there has been a sharp reversal for Republicans in many statehouses and governors' mansions.

In several states, including the traditional battlegrounds of Nevada and Iowa, Democrats have surprised their own party officials with significant registration gains. In both of those states, there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans, a flip from 2004. No states have switched to the Republicans over the same period, according to data from 26 of the 29 states in which voters register by party. (Three of the states did not have complete data.)

In six states, including Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Iowa, the Democratic piece of the registration pie grew more than three percentage points, while the Republicans' share declined. In only three states - Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma - did Republican registration rise while Democratic registration fell, but the Republican increase was less than a percentage point in Kentucky and Oklahoma. Louisiana was the only state to register a gain of more than one percentage point for Republicans as Democratic numbers declined.

During the same period, the share of the electorate that registers as independent has grown at a faster rate than Republicans or Democrats in 12 states. The rise has been so significant that in states like Arizona, North Carolina and Colorado, nonpartisan voters essentially constitute a third party.

Swings in party registration are not uncommon from one year to the next, or even over two years. Registration, moreover, often has no impact on how people actually vote, and people sometimes switch registration to vote in a primary, then flip again come Election Day.

But for a shift away from one party to sustain itself - the current registration trend is now in its fourth year - is remarkable, researchers who study voting patterns say.

"This is very suggestive that there is a fundamental change going on in the electorate," said Michael P. McDonald, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute who has studied voting patterns. He added that, more typically, voting and registration patterns tend to even out or revert to the opposing party between elections.

Share this:

Loading Comments...

Email Print

ADVERTISEMENT