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Governor May Have Faded As VP Choice

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By WILLIAM MARCH

The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 9, 2008

Updated: 08/09/2008 12:12 am

TAMPA - With John McCain likely only days from announcing his running mate, the chances of his choosing Florida Gov. Charlie Crist took three hits this week: a poll, a controversy over campaign contributions and an important newspaper non-endorsement.

Recent speculation about Crist has put him in the lower tier of potential running mates and focused more on former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

But even as Crist announced his plans to marry fiancee Carole Rome on Dec. 12, ending the bachelor status that was considered a drawback, other events may cut his chances:

•First, news reports questioned contributions brought to the McCain campaign by Boca Raton businessman Harry Sargeant III, a longtime friend of Crist.

Sargeant was a "bundler" - someone who recruits contributions from several individuals - for McCain, Crist and others.

•Second, a Florida Chamber of Commerce poll Friday showed McCain with a lead over Barack Obama in Florida. If he can win Florida without Crist, that eliminates an argument for choosing him.

•Third, The Wall Street Journal editorial page, often considered the bible of fiscal conservatives, said this week that Crist should be ruled out because of what the newspaper called his political "opportunism."

Crist "has faded as a potential VP choice anyway. The Sargeant controversy is just the latest blow," said University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

But Crist supporter Brian Ballard, a top McCain campaign volunteer, said he doesn't think the situation has changed, though he noted that Crist has forbidden friends from promoting him as vice president.

"I am not advocating Charlie Crist's selection," he said. "But there have been a lot of commentators that acknowledge his leadership on important issues."

He said he's confident Sargeant is innocent of any wrongdoing, and added, "With respect to The Wall Street Journal, they don't elect many people in Florida."

The Washington Post revealed Tuesday that a number of large contributions made through Sargeant came from individuals who appeared to be of modest means and who had little interest in politics.

To some, that raised the question of whether the donors were reimbursed for the contributions, or pressured into giving them, both of which are illegal. Sargeant has denied wrongdoing and said he didn't know some of the donors personally.

The New York Times then reported that a Jordanian business partner of Sargeant actually recruited the contributions. The McCain campaign has announced it will refund $50,000.

"That's not the sort of thing you want to see just before you announce your pick," said University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson, a Republican and supporter of Crist. "I haven't thought for a while that Crist was in the top tier any longer, but these three events together diminish the likelihood."

The poll, done by the Republican-oriented Fabrizio, McLaughlin & Associates for the Chamber, showed McCain with 45 percent, Barack Obama with 40 percent and 15 percent undecided in Florida. With the 2.5-point error margin, that's a statistically significant lead.

Other recent polls have shown the race as a tossup in Florida. McCain is thought to be moving up in the polls because of a string of attack ads against Obama.

Paulson said the Wall Street Journal "is one of the standards for economic conservatives, and they've been very hard on Charlie Crist."

Last year, the newspaper criticized his approach to homeowners insurance problems as "Cuban economics" that would "put one of the more well governed states on the path to fiscal ruin."

In a Thursday editorial, it said Crist "has a record of too-frequent political opportunism that would disappoint much of the party," without elaborating.

National Review, another prominent conservative publication founded by the late William F. Buckley, last month listed Crist in an article titled, "McCain's Untouchables."

Crist's moderate politics are thought unlikely to win support for McCain from the conservative side of the party, which McCain needs to cultivate.

Paulson said he doesn't accept the common argument for Crist as running mate - "If McCain can't win Florida without Crist, he can't win the presidency," he said.

Reporter William March can be reached at wmarch@tampatrib.com or (813) 259-7761.

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