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Forecasters Keep An Eye On Tropical Waves In Atlantic

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 11, 2008

Updated: 08/11/2008 06:44 pm

TAMPA - A pair of tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean have the potential to become tropical depressions over the next several days, the National Hurricane Center said.

Forecasters started watching the waves during the weekend.

Both are entering areas in the Atlantic where development could occur.

The first wave is about 825 miles from the eastern edge of the Caribbean Sea and is moving west at about 20 mph. Though the thunderstorms remain fairly disorganized, forecasters said that could change closer to the middle of the week.

It already has a well-defined circulation, one of the criteria the hurricane center uses to determine whether a depression or tropical storm has formed.

The area of low pressure embedded in the wave has winds of just more than 25 mph, well below the 34-mph threshold for a tropical storm.

Computer intensity models are split on whether the disturbance will grow into a tropical storm or hurricane, but most show it reaching tropical storm strength around Wednesday.

Most of the early track projections have the wave heading generally west, then edging slightly to the west-northwest. The models are slightly spread out, which is not unusual with early runs.

The model paths mostly have the disturbance reaching the islands at the eastern edge of the Caribbean in three days and heading over Haiti at the northern edge of the Caribbean in five days.

Those models can change dramatically in five days.

The second wave under observation is farther to the east, about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Thunderstorm activity became better organized Monday and the storm slowed from about 20 mph to 10 mph.

Track models predict the storm continuing west for the next five days. Its winds are also just more than over 25 mph.

August and September are the part of hurricane season when storms tend to form in the tropical Atlantic.

Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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