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Flight Shows Tropical Wave Hasn't Become Depression Yet

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 12, 2008

Updated: 08/12/2008 05:26 pm

TAMPA - A hurricane hunter aircraft that explored a tropical wave approaching the Caribbean Sea today found it has not become a tropical depression.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, however, say there's still a high possibility the wave, which is several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands, could become at least a depression and possibly a tropical storm or hurricane.

The center's forecasters have watched the wave since the weekend as thunderstorm activity increased daily.

The wave is moving west northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Its winds have remained below 30 mph since Monday. Those winds are estimated by satellite, and the hurricane hunter will give forecasters a more accurate idea of the wind speed and whether the system has developed an eye.

Regardless of finding the wave has not developed into a tropical depression, data from the flight will boost the accuracy of computer models that help forecast a storm's track and intensity.

The hurricane center may send another aircraft into the wave Wednesday.

Computer models that predict intensity have become more united in predicting the wave will become a tropical storm in the next several days, and most nudge it to hurricane strength by the weekend.

One reason the models are split is that the wave is entering an area east of the Caribbean where shear could delay or disrupt development. Once the system gets past this area, though, the shear is forecast to drop.

On Monday, those intensity models were evenly split on whether a tropical storm would form.

Models projecting the wave's track became more divergent Tuesday afternoon, especially on projecting where the storm might be after Thursday. The models seem in fairly good agreement that any developing storm would skirt the Caribbean.

Their general track is slightly north of what model runs were showing Monday.

The hurricane center also is watching a tropical wave farther east that sprawls over several hundred miles of the Atlantic about 400 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving east at 10 to 15 mph.

Forecasters say the disturbance did not become more organized Monday night but still has the potential in the next couple of days to become a tropical depression.

Most of the track models for the second wave keep it still east of the Caribbean by the end of the weekend. Some also show the wave making a slight curve toward the north this week.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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