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Russians Advance In Georgia

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By HELENE COOPER

The New York Times

Published: August 12, 2008

WASHINGTON - Russian troops stepped up their advance into Georgian territory on Monday, attempting to turn back the clock to the days when Moscow held uncontested sway over what it considers its "near abroad," and arousing increasing alarm among Western leaders.

Even as they prepared to convene an emergency meeting of NATO today and President Bush denounced the Russian actions in the strongest terms to date, the United States and its European allies faced tough choices over how to push back.

They seemed uncertain how to adjust to a new geopolitical game that threatened to undermine two decades of democratic gains in countries that once were part of the Soviet sphere.
Russian troops briefly seized a Georgian military base and took up positions close to the Georgian city of Gori on Monday, raising Georgian fears of a full-scale invasion or an attempt to oust the country's pro-Western president, Mikheil Saakashvili.

Bush, little more than an hour after returning to Washington from the Olympic Games in Beijing, bluntly warned Russia that its military operations were damaging its reputation and were "unacceptable in the 21st century."

"Russia's actions this week have raised serious questions about its intent in Georgia and the region," he said.

"These actions have substantially damaged Russia's standing in the world, and these actions jeopardize relations with the United States and Europe."

Administration officials said military options were almost certainly off the table, but the United States did airlift Georgian troops stationed in Iraq back home, answering a plea from the Georgian government and prompting a sharp response from Russia.

Washington also could press to ostracize Moscow on the international stage, perhaps by kicking it out of the Group of 8 industrialized nations.

Yet there was no immediate indication that Western powers could exercise much leverage over Russia if it chooses to ignore their warnings.

The country is enjoying windfall profits from oil exports and seems determined to reassert influence over Georgia and Ukraine. It also is sending a clear signal to former satellite states that they should be wary of an overly cozy political and military alliance with the United States, analysts said.

"If the United States and Europe don't stop Russia, I think this is the end of what we thought of as the post-Soviet era," said Sarah Mendelson, a Center for Strategic and International Studies scholar.

George Friedman, chief executive of Stratfor, a geopolitical risk analysis company, said: "The Russians feel they have been treated like dirt by the world for the last 20 years. Now, they're back."

"Georgia, in a way, is suffering for all that happened to Russia in the last 20 years," said Alexander Rahr, a leading German foreign-policy scholar and a biographer of Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Putin has blamed the Georgian leadership and the West for deliberately miscasting Russia's actions, and has accused the Georgians of war crimes.

Few foreign policy experts believe that Russia can ever recapture its days of communist glory, global intimidation and military might; the world has changed and growing global powers such as China and India will make a return to the Cold War impossible.

There is a growing belief in European capitals and Washington that the return of Russia could mean a distinct redrawing of the Eurasia map, with Europe and the United States giving up attempts to integrate former Soviet republics such as Ukraine and Georgia, into the Western orbit, while battling with Russia to keep Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Baltic states.

And the return of Russia could mean an end to dwindling American and European hopes of bringing Russia along as an ally of the West.

At best, Russia would never be trusted; at worst, it would be seen as an adversary.

Even for an emboldened Moscow, Russia's foray into Georgia carries substantial risks: not just global isolation from the Western democracies but anger from neighboring states of the former Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact.

It also risks the prospect of perpetual military quagmires around its borders, if not on the catastrophic scale of the Soviet war in Afghanistan, and nationalist reprisals like those that resulted from its crackdown in Chechnya.

A crowd of more than 1,000 people demonstrated in the Latvian capital, Riga, on Monday. Hundreds more gathered in Tallinn, Estonia, and Vilnius, Lithuania, to press the West to adopt a tough stance toward Moscow. Leaders in Poland and the Czech Republic echoed that call.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice sent State Department official Matt Bryza to the region to back up mediation efforts led by French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner.

Many foreign policy experts said part of the reason Russia responded so forcefully to Georgia's attempt to take back South Ossetia is because the United States and Europe had been asserting themselves in Russia's backyard, alienating Moscow by supporting Kosovo's bid for independence.

Beyond that, Russia has been angry about U.S. plans to put a missile defense system in Poland and by American moves to encourage Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.

"The combination is that the overall means with which we've dealt with the Russians over the last two years have painted them into a corner so that it's difficult for them not to see us as hostile," said Michael Greig, conflict management specialist at the University of North Texas.

But the problem is the response. Russia has pushed back hard. The United States, bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and fretting about Iran, is unlikely to take on Russia over Georgia. Russia has shown it wants to rule its backyard, said Friedman, noting, "All this basically means that Russia emerges as a great power. Not a global power like it used to be, but a power that has to be taken very seriously."

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