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Forecasters Say Tropical Wave Still Has Storm Potential

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 13, 2008

Updated: 08/13/2008 04:36 pm

TAMPA - If it survives the next few days, a tropical wave about 200 miles from the Caribbean Sea could again have some potential to develop into a depression or tropical storm.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center this morning said the wave they have monitored since the weekend may not develop into anything worse than an area of bad weather.

This afternoon, however, the hurricane center said the wave could encounter conditions more suitable to develop by the end of the week, giving it an increased possibility to become better organized.

The wave's potential has been a see-saw.

Tuesday, forecasters thought the wave had a high potential to develop. When a hurricane hunter flying through the wave failed to find a tropical depression, however, forecasters began backing off that expectation this morning.

A hurricane hunter aircraft scheduled to fly through the tropical wave today was canceled.

"Potential for tropical cyclone formation during the next day or two has decreased," the hurricane center said in an analysis this morning of conditions in the tropics.

Now, with shear likely to decrease in a few days, the hurricane center isn't as certain.

Most computer models that predict intensity show the possibility of the wave reaching tropical-storm strength but differ widely on whether that might be by Friday or the weekend.

Winds have remained at just a bit above 25 mph but below 30 mph since Monday.

A second wave being monitored is about 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and has held less potential to develop. Forecasters said thunderstorm activity increased slightly, but they still think there's only a moderate chance for it to become a tropical storm or hurricane.

The center will continue watching both tropical waves. The nearest wave could still bring rain and storms to the Leeward Islands in a couple of days and northern Caribbean islands or Bahamas by the weekend if it survives that long.

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