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Puzzling Traffic Numbers Merit Another Close Look

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 13, 2008

Anyone who doubts Hillsborough residents are ready for transportation alternatives might consider the county's latest traffic study.

The study raised eyebrows because it reported a decrease in congestion on county roads, even though the number of registered cars in Hillsborough increased during the same period. And the report was done in 2007 before skyrocketing gas prices made motorists think twice about leaving the garage. Some experts suspected the survey was flawed.

To some residents, it seemed more than a coincidence that the county reported traffic decreases at the same time new state rules threaten to penalize a county that allows growth to gridlock roads. Moreover, development projects can be halted if surrounding roads are already congested. A few years ago the state adopted a law that requires counties with failing roads to develop "action plans" to ease congestion. The required improvements could cost millions or more. And the deadline goes into effect this year.

So the numbers in this developer-friendly county merit scrutiny. Hillsborough County commissioners, who will review the matter in a couple of weeks, should have the county's internal auditor review the analysis.

Yet county officials' explanation for the numbers is plausible and seems to suggest at least some gridlock-weary residents may be willing to give up their cars - even without a convenient countywide transit system.

Those commissioners who have been reluctant to pursue transit should attend the matter closely.

County officials attribute the traffic reduction on county roads to a number of factors: the real-estate slump, flat school enrollment and several road projects, especially the reversible lanes on the Lee Roy Selmon Crosstown Expressway.

But less congestion also was reported on other roads not affected by the expressway or other road-improvement projects.

Hillsborough director of transportation planning Bob Campbell thinks he knows the reason: Transit ridership on the local bus system increased 33 percent during 2006-2007, and more residents in FishHawk and New Tampa subdivisions began using express bus service.

Campbell says that even before the dramatic gas price increases, more people may have been looking for ways to avoid driving on congested roads.

He also stresses that though congestion did go down on county roads, Hillsborough traffic shows an overall increase. More traffic was reported on state roads, such as the interstates and State Road 60.

To Commissioner Mark Sharpe, a rail advocate, all this shows that people are desperate for alternatives to the daily commute.

But he says there is no sense making assumptions; he wants an objective review of the numbers.

"We've got to make sure everything is based on the evidence and fact, " he says

His colleagues should support Sharpe and take a close look not only at the traffic numbers but at the possibility that Hillsborough residents are ready for a means of transportation that will get them out of bumper-to-bumper traffic.

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