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Underestimating Russian Bear Puts Little Georgia In Its Jaws

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The Tampa Tribune

Published: August 15, 2008

The United States has sent mixed signals to the former Soviet state that now finds itself partially occupied by Russian troops.

While emboldened by American military support over the years, Georgia also was warned by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, herself a Russian scholar: Don't attack pro-Russian separatists because if you start a fight with Russia, the United States won't ride to the rescue.

Now Rice must go to Georgia to try to head off future miscalculations by both sides. Russia can't be allowed to bully the democratic country, but neither should political and ethnic friction there be allowed to spark World War III.

Sen. John McCain is wrong when he says, "We are all Georgians." That is not even true on the eastern shore of the Black Sea. Separatists in the provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia want independence from Georgia. Their mistreatment is the pretext for Russia's invasion.

But McCain is right that Russia overreacted. Cuba is the only nation supporting the incursion. Still, the United States appears to be the only country willing to actually go there to help.

By ordering the U.S. military to deliver humanitarian aid, President Bush accomplishes two goals. The arrival of cots, blankets and medicine tells Russia we care about Georgia's welfare, yet by not sending in fighting troops, he offers Russia a chance to make a dignified retreat.

It's easy to see how Georgia might expect U.S. Marines to drop from the sky and knock the Russians back to Moscow. The United States has been fighting for years in Iraq, only about 500 miles to the south.

To the Georgians, Americans must appear to have infinite resources and a selfless willingness to right distant wrongs. Georgia calculated that its friendship with America would be enough to shield it from Russian aggression, so it felt free to antagonize the bear.

Now, instead of celebrating another opportunity to fight, Bush needs to choose his words carefully.

The United States has promised Georgia eventual membership in NATO, which guarantees an all-for-one defense to its members. But as the alliance extends nearer the Arabian Sea than the North Atlantic, NATO needs to worry about over-expansion.

Meanwhile, Georgia is left exposed, like a key witness who, after being encouraged to testify against a member of a crime family, learns there's a two-year wait to enter the witness-protection program. The level of protection during Georgia's transition has been dangerously vague.

Now that Russian tanks have rolled into the independent state and aren't in a hurry to leave, President Bush must keep America's interests in perspective. Russia is a nuclear power, but its economy is smaller than that of either France or Germany. The European Union does not feel threatened and is unlikely to offer Bush much military support.

Georgia is a multiethnic democracy with only 4.5 million people. Its economy is one-sixth the output of the Tampa metropolitan area. The country cannot defend itself from Russia, nor should it expect unlimited U.S. protection no matter how it behaves.

When Rice is in Georgia, she needs to make sure the country knows we're supportive, but that we're not all Georgians.

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